- China wants large-scale solid-state battery deployment by 2030 to extend its lead in EV technology.
- CATL warns that cost and manufacturing hurdles still stand between solid-state batteries and mass adoption.
- Getting solid-state batteries into affordable EVs could take longer than getting them into production.
It’s easy to get excited about solid-state batteries in electric vehicles. Predicting when you’ll actually be able to buy an EV equipped with one is a lot harder. China has set mass-producing solid-state batteries as a national goal to help move things along, but its largest battery manufacturer, CATL, is careful not to overpromise.
China wants to achieve large-scale deployment of solid-state batteries by 2030, under a new battery industry roadmap released on September 28. According to the South China Morning Post, the aim is to extend the country’s already significant advantage in conventional batteries into the next generation of technology.
But doing that will require lower costs, better performance and stability, and advances (preferably breakthroughs) in materials and manufacturing. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology acknowledged that China’s existing battery industry has problems, including shortcomings in innovation and imbalances in supply and demand.
What’s clear is that having an enormous manufacturing and research base gives China a strong starting point. But it also needs to find the engineering solutions needed to actually make it happen.
Earlier this summer, and months before this roadmap appeared, CATL chairman Robin Zeng rated solid-state technology at level four out of nine on the readiness scale, with nine representing mass-production readiness.
Zeng had also said adoption in millions of vehicles was unlikely before the end of the decade because performance and cost remained obstacles. That makes 2030 a possible starting point for these batteries to reach more cars, rather than the year they suddenly become an industry-wide standard.
CATL has confirmed plans to start limited production of solid-state batteries in 2027, but it suggested that moving to much larger volumes would be difficult.
We’ve heard similar caution elsewhere. LG Energy Solution’s North America president Robert Lee highlighted the difficulty of manufacturing large solid-state cells. He also expects the first mass-market applications to not arrive in electric vehicles.
Semi-solid-state batteries are already reaching vehicles in China in limited numbers. Those introductions shouldn’t be mistaken for proof that all-solid-state batteries are ready for widespread adoption. One BloombergNEF’s forecast that solid-state technology will account for just 10% of combined global EV and battery-storage demand by 2035.
China’s battery roadmap is broader than solid-state technology. It includes sodium and flow batteries, better safety and temperature performance, and improved manufacturing quality. A separate target calls for long-life lithium batteries capable of 15,000 cycles, although that doesn’t mean solid-state batteries will come close.
The coordinated national push should not be taken lightly. China sets its economic and industrial priorities through five-year plans, giving government agencies and businesses a shared direction. The previous cycle, which ran between 2021–2025, saw China cement its EV dominance: by its end, the country accounted for 70% of global electric car production.
The new 2026–2030 battery roadmap aims to carry that advantage into the next generation of technology. Getting solid-state batteries in cars will be a milestone. Getting them into millions of reasonably priced cars will be the real achievement.
