China-Taiwan tensions: how worried should we be about military conflict?

Taiwan navy personnel look on during a drill in January. China has escalated its military exercises near the island, raising tensions and prompting fears of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Photograph: Ritchie B Tongo/EPA

In the wake of US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China has revealed plans for unprecedented military exercises near the island, prompting fears of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

Pelosi visited the self-governing island this week in defiance of a series threats from Beijing, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province, and warned it would consider the visit a major provocation.