China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Pacific Island counterparts today in Suva for a crucial virtual meeting that could have big ramifications for Australia and the whole region.
Beijing has been pursuing a sweeping new agreement with a host of countries across the Pacific ahead of the meeting.
Documents leaked to Reuters — and later obtained by the ABC — indicate China wants to reshape the existing regional order and expand cooperation across a vast range of areas including policing, cybersecurity, trade, fisheries and development.
Today's meeting in Fiji's capital presents Wang Yi with an opportunity to seal the pact. But to do that he has to secure agreement from Pacific Island states.
At this stage, that looks like a tall order. One Pacific Island leader has already criticised the proposal, while others seem very uneasy. There is absolutely no guarantee this gambit will succeed.
But things might become a bit clearer after the meeting winds up on Monday afternoon.
Who will join the meeting?
All the Pacific Island countries which recognise China will attend: Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Cook Islands, Niue and Federated States of Micronesia.
That means all Pacific states except for Tuvalu, Palau, the Marshall Islands and Nauru, which all still maintain ties with Taiwan instead.
This is only the second time that China's Foreign Minister has met his Pacific counterparts in a joint meeting. The first meeting was in October last year.
This meeting will be held at Fiji's historic Grand Pacific Hotel, where Mr Wang has been staying.
Given COVID-19 restrictions in some countries and the difficulty of travel around the Pacific, foreign ministers are expected to dial into the meeting virtually rather than flying to Fiji to attend.
But the fact that China is now holding regular foreign-minister-level meetings with Pacific Island nations is another illustration of the way it is trying to deepen political and strategic links with the region.
What's the agreement China has been pursuing?
You can find a copy of the agreements being pursued at the bottom of the story here.
The documents not only lay out a plan to expand policing cooperation but also propose a new free trade arrangement between China and the Pacific, a new Chinese government envoy to the region, intensified cyber security cooperation and deeper cooperation across a host of sectors from agriculture to fishery and pandemic management.
While some of the promises are vague, and could easily come to nothing, the scope of the document — as well as Beijing's shift from dealing bilaterally with Pacific states to chasing a broad-brush pact with multiple countries — has unnerved some in the region.
The President of Micronesia has already slammed the proposed agreement. In an extraordinary letter to fellow Pacific Island leaders, he warned China's proposal could spark a new Cold War between China and the West in the Pacific.
He also declared that Pacific Island states risked being pulled into Beijing's orbit, suggesting they would lose sovereignty and independence.
One Pacific government official told the ABC that some states in the region were not keen on discussing the pact during the meeting, but other countries in the group had pressed to include it.
Tracking progress over the last few days has not been easy. There are contradictory accounts of whether the agreement remains a formal agenda item for this meeting or not.
But it seems very likely that foreign ministers will have to discuss the deal given the blaze of publicity over the last week.
And if Beijing can somehow keep it on the docket and secure an agreement from multiple states, it will count it as a huge diplomatic coup.
What are the chances China will pull this off?
Diplomats and analysts alike are predicting that China's push to land this deal will falter.
Pacific Island states value consensus and do not tend to relish public confrontation in diplomatic fora. Where possible, they seek to reach agreements through quiet negotiation and deliberative discussions.
The fact that this document has already been leaked and denounced shatters that possibility.
Some Western officials say the proposed agreement looks awfully like an ambit claim and that China's chances of success are very slim.
The day after the leak, one diplomat told the ABC that it would likely collapse.
But just because something seems unlikely does not mean it is impossible. You can bet that several countries will be watching today's meeting very carefully.
And even if China fails in its push to land an agreement with all Pacific countries, that does not mean that some individual nations will not press ahead and sign it.
If there is one thing Wang Yi's trip to the Pacific has signalled, it is that Australia is not the only country pursuing a Pacific step up.
