The world's biggest holiday shopping bonanza, Singles Day, peaks on Saturday. The "holiday" — a commercial shopping event similar to back-to-school sales, Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the U.S. — features major discounts from retail giants like Alibaba, JD.com and PDD Holdings. Analysts expect muted sales for this year's spending spree. BABA stock and JD shares were flat Friday while PDD stock ticked higher.
The commercial event, which some call "Double 11," gets rolling in late October but crescendos on Nov. 11. It originated in 1993 as "Bachelor's Day," an alternative to Valentine's Day for those not in a relationship to celebrate and splurge on themselves. Alibaba launched the current iteration of Singles Day in 2009, which lasts from late October to Nov. 11. The sales event was a hit and went global, eventually inspiring Amazon to launch Prime Day in 2015.
Last year's Singles Day generated more than $140 billion in merchandise sales, according to estimates from consulting firm Bain & Co. That far surpassed the total $35.3 billion from Cyber Week in the U.S., according to Adobe Analytics.
Singles Day To Slow As Black Friday Gains
However, the torrid spending during Singles Day is likely to slow this year, according to an annual survey from Bain. Roughly 77% of consumers plan to spend less or maintain their prior year's spending levels during the 2023 shopping holiday, based on the Singles Day report. The report surveyed more than 3,000 consumers across various cities in China.
The muted outlook is no surprise given the current macroeconomic pressures in the country, the firm wrote. Consumers facing such pressures turn to value-focused alternatives. And an increasingly crowded retail sector has rivals joining in the Singles Day strategy, Bain wrote.
"Interestingly, this level of caution is comparable to consumer sentiment last year where 76% of shoppers surveyed mentioned reducing or maintaining their Singles Day spend," said James Yang, retail partner at Bain & Co., in the release. "There seems to be an element of structural slowdown about the event linked to its longevity and scale. This year's survey dug deeper into general spending intentions beyond Singles Day, and 71% of respondents told us they would cut or maintain retail spending through 2023."
About 35% of survey participants said they were waiting for better promotional deals to increase their spending power, while 18% are seeking bulk deals. Forty-eight percent of participants said they plan to switch to cheaper brands or private-label products.
Amazon's July Prime Day sales event reported $12.7 billion in sales this year, a 6.1% increase over 2022. Adobe forecasts that online spending during the 2023 Cyber Week — which includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday — climbs to $37.2 billion, driven by a record $12 billion in Cyber Monday sales, up 4.8% from last year. Online sales for Black Friday alone are forecast to rise 5.7% over 2022, to $9.6 billion.
Stock Action
BABA stock was flat Friday after two days of declines. Shares are below their technical moving averages and trading nearly 33% below their 2023 highs from late January. BABA stock is down about 6% so far this year.
JD.com rose a fraction Friday, ending a three-day streak of declines. JD stock is near 2023 lows and is down 55% year to date.
PDD Holdings, the parent company of fast fashion brand Temu, ticked up 0.7% Friday. PDD stock rallied 33% this year, approaching a profit-taking zone after a late-August handle breakout.
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