Things fall apart, if you let them – and ethnically, religiously, ideologically fractured Myanmar, formerly Burma, has never been a model of harmonious, integrated nationhood. Yet since the 2021 military coup and ensuing civil war, new and old divisions have grown rapidly. Western and neighbouring states supporting a democratic restoration now face a more fundamental, urgent challenge: how to prevent Myanmar’s anarchic disintegration.
A break-up would send destabilising shock waves coursing across the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh and all of south-east Asia. The humanitarian implications for its 54 million people are dire. A collapse would boost separatist forces and non-state actors elsewhere. And it would severely dent China’s claims to regional leadership. If President Xi Jinping cannot manage Myanmar, what price Beijing’s superpower pretensions?
