Chinese military and coastguard personnel surrounded Taiwan’s main island on Monday for a day of large-scale drills that Beijing said were a warning against “separatist acts”, in the wake of a recent speech by Taiwan’s president.
State media linked the drills to a National Day speech last Thursday by Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, in which he repeated that the People’s Republic of China “has no right to represent Taiwan”, but that he was willing to work with it to maintain peace and stability.
The drills began before dawn and without prior notice. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said all branches of the military were approaching Taiwan by sea and air, including in a strike group led by one of China’s two active aircraft carriers, the Liaoning. The joint drills focused on sea and air combat readiness, blockading key Taiwanese ports and areas, and assaults on maritime and ground targets, said the eastern theatre command’s spokesperson, senior captain Li Xi.
“The drill also serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces,” Li added.
The PLA did not announce any live-fire or no-fly zones. Provided maps showed nine declared zones for the exercises, including six large areas near Taiwan’s major ports.
At the same time the Chinese coastguard, which is separate to the military but serves under the same commanding body, announced “law enforcement patrols” around the main Taiwan island in what it said was “a practical action to control Taiwan Island in accordance with the law based on the one-China principle”. However, ship tracking data seen by the Guardian showed Chinese coastguard vessels did not track around Taiwan’s southern end.
The PLA said shortly after 6pm local time that the drills had been “completed successfully”.
At a press conference on Monday afternoon, Taiwan’s defence ministry said the PLA activity was “within expectations” of its knowledge of China’s capabilities. A record number of 125 aircraft were spotted, with 90 entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. It also detected 17 military ships and 17 coastguard ships, with some of the latter entering restricted waters around Taiwan’s outer islands, which the ministry decried as “harassment” and cognitive warfare. No vessels from China’s maritime militia – a paramilitary fleet of fishing boats – were seen.
About double the usual number of daily cyber-attacks were detected and disrupted, the ministry said. They were also investigating whether a Chinese man’s attempt to motor an inflatable dinghy to a Taiwanese island a few miles from China was part of the drills.
Earlier, Beijing authorities also announced three Taiwanese additions to its list of sanctioned “die-hard secessionists”. The additions included Puma Shen, a legislator who co-founded the Kuma Academy civilian defence organisation, Robert Tsao, a Taiwanese billionaire who has funded civilian defence projects including the Kuma Academy, and the academy itself.
As expected, China announces PLA Joint Sword-2024B exercises (1st map). China Coast Guard exercises as well (2nd map). https://t.co/OSaC8uikOghttps://t.co/eZa2wheu77 pic.twitter.com/H8LKSzX6JJ
— Brian Hart (@BrianTHart) October 14, 2024
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council called Monday’s drills “blatant provocations” that seriously undermined regional peace and stability. The ministry of foreign affairs called on Beijing to “pull back from the brink of a precipice”, while the president’s office urged Beijing to accept the “goodwill” offered in Lai’s speech. It said Lai had convened a national security meeting to respond. Taiwan also deployed war ships and planes and land-based radar systems in response.
In Washington, officials from the Biden administration urged Beijing to act with restraint, and said they were monitoring the drills and there was no justification for them after Lai’s “routine” speech.
On Monday afternoon, Beijing stood by its actions. “Taiwan independence and peace in the Taiwan strait are irreconcilable,” foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular press briefing.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, claims Taiwan is a Chinese province and has urged it to accept what he calls “peaceful reunification”. But an overwhelming majority of Taiwan’s people and parliament reject the prospect of Communist party rule. In response, Beijing has escalated military exercises and incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone, as well as cognitive, technological and economic warfare, and mass disinformation campaigns. US intelligence reportedly claims Xi has instructed the military to be capable of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
Lai’s National Day speech was seen by analysts as restrained, and more measured than his May inauguration speech. Writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, David Sacks said on Friday that if China were to react aggressively to it, then “Lai may very well conclude (not without reason) that there is little to be gained through restraint and may embrace more explicit rhetoric on cross-strait relations”.
Monday’s exercises, codenamed “Joint Sword 2024B”, had been largely expected by observers. Exercises named “Joint Sword 2024A” were launched after Lai’s inauguration, the “A” suffix suggesting there were more to come this year.
The PLA regularly runs military drills and at least one or two a year have focused on an invasion or blockade of Taiwan. Such military drills take substantial preparation but are usually linked to a speech or action in Taiwan which Beijing says it finds provocative.
Military analysts have warned each new set of drills has demonstrated strategic escalation in the PLA’s approach to Taiwan, even if there appears to be less firepower.
Last month China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time since the 1980s. The missile landed in the south Pacific, near French Polynesia, prompting statements of concern from Pacific nations. Last week China also participated in joint drills with Russia. On Monday, Russian state media said the two militaries were continuing with anti-submarine firing exercises in the north-west Pacific.
