China is facing crucial decisions on its climate policies as its hard-won relationship with the US on tackling the crisis looks set to founder during Donald Trump’s second presidential term.
World leaders and heads of delegations from many countries gathered at the Cop29 UN climate summit are trying to salvage commitments that China has made during Joe Biden’s term, which ends in January.
Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the thinktank E3G, said: “They’re already trying to do that. China have said they are committed to the Paris agreement and in favour of the multilateral regime, so regardless of what the US does they should press ahead. It’s in their own interests to do so.”
But countries seeking concrete action from Beijing may face an uphill task as China could now be more wary of converting its previous intentions into robust policy measures until the incoming US president has revealed more of his plans.
Under Biden, the US and China have had a testy relationship on most issues, particularly trade and tariffs, but on the climate they have enjoyed rare accord, fostered carefully since Biden took office. At a series of meetings, the two countries have reaffirmed joint commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially methane, a particularly potent gas whose emissions have risen rapidly.
The US delegation to Cop29 will be made up of Biden officials including John Podesta, the senior adviser to the president for international climate policy. Neither Biden nor Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, are attending the conference in Baku, but China’s top climate official, Liu Zhenmin, is there. Liu has met Podesta several times, including for dinner at Podesta’s home in Washington DC, and they are said to get on well.
Bernice Lee, a research director for futures at the Chatham House thinktank, said the loss of the core US-China relationship in the climate talks was not insurmountable. “Even if official US-China collaboration proves difficult, alternative pathways exist – through business, people-to-people exchanges, and subnational partnerships,” she said. “Climate is ultimately the only bridge. China also has a chance to step up, supporting renewable energy in developing nations. This would not only address global climate needs but also create new markets for its products, regardless of US manoeuvres.”
China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases by a long way, with close to a third of all global carbon dioxide output – greater than those of all developed countries combined – and it is the second biggest economy. The US is the biggest economy and biggest exporter of gas, and one of the largest producers of oil.
One of the main issues on which the US and China were aligned is methane, a gas scores of times more powerful than CO2 in its warming effect, and which comes from coalmining, oil and gas production and animal husbandry. Scientists argue that reducing methane is one of the most sensible actions governments can take in the short term to stave off the worst impacts of global heating.
Adair Turner, a former chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee and now chair of the Energy Transitions Commission thinktank, said: “There will be a step back [by the US] from things like [controlling] methane emissions, a rollback of limits on flaring and leaks from oil and natural gas facilities. That’s a disaster. Methane leakage is a major issue. US shale gas leaks a lot far more, for instance, than North Sea oil.”
China also has huge methane emissions, in part from its coalmining, but despite positive words it has been slow to take any action to reduce them. Paul Bledsoe, a former Bill Clinton White House climate adviser, said: “While China has offered absolutely no commitments to methane reductions or even phase-downs of any type, they have routinely put out self-serving communiques about their methodologies and metrics. It’s been infuriating. Clearly Podesta is desperately lobbying them for cuts, since the Biden administration has prioritised domestic and international methane mitigation.”
Trump’s electoral triumph made such firm commitments much less likely, Bledsoe said. “This is just an early microcosm into a Trump presidency of climate nihilism and extreme climate consequences,” he said. “In fact, Trump will attempt to roll back US methane regulations even though most in US industry say they can readily achieve them.”
Finance is also an important issue at Cop29, as developing countries are demanding $1tn (£790bn) a year in funding by 2035 to help them cut greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the impacts of climate breakdown. Rich countries are obliged under the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change, the parent treaty to the Paris agreement, to provide such finance to the poor world.
China is not, as it is still classed as a developing country. The government is reluctant to rescind that status and will not accept obligations to provide finance, though on a voluntary basis it already lends billions to smaller developing countries, some of it for fossil fuels and some for clean energy.
Rich countries will not agree to increase their contributions unless more contributors are brought onboard, with China a key target. It is possible that a compromise may be found in which China’s current financing can be recognised.
Nevertheless, that may require a degree of scrutiny that could be uncomfortable for China. Beijing’s current lending to poor countries comes with costly strings attached: developing countries spent nearly $300bn in 2022 just on servicing their debts to China. These costs are pushing some of the world’s most vulnerable nations further into poverty.
Trump may also ignite a trade war with China, as he is keen to impose tariffs. That is something other countries keen to have a relationship with China should avoid, according to Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He said it was futile for developed countries to carry on trying to blame China for its focus on renewable energy and green technology. Instead, they should use cheap Chinese products to cut their own greenhouse gases. Li said: “You can carry on finger-pointing, but what’s the point?”
