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ED CARSON

Tesla Rival Sales Boom On This Big Shift; Li Auto, Nio, XPeng Report China EV Deliveries

Tesla archrival BYD reported booming August sales on Sunday, with plug-in hybrids continuing to lead the way. BYD stock fell back to a buy point Tuesday as its EV rivals were mixed.

China EV makers Li Auto and Nio reported small monthly declines while XPeng and Zeekr posted big increases vs. July.

Tesla China sales were strong in August, according to industry data.

Increased government subsidies and company incentives have buoyed EV sales in the summer.

BYD stock broke out of a base Friday, while the smaller China EV makers are down sharply in 2024.

BYD and Li Auto reported mixed Q2 earnings on Aug. 28, after XPeng and Zeekr reported in the prior week. Nio will release Q2 results on Sept. 5.

BYD Sales

BYD sold a record 373,083 vehicles in August, up 36% vs. a year earlier and 9% vs. July's 342,383.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) continued to be the main driver, buoyed by a new advanced hybrid system that offers much-longer range.

Of the 370,854 passenger EVs, BYD sold 222,384 PHEVs, a sixth straight record high and up 73.1% vs. a year earlier and 5.5% vs. July. Fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) came in at 148,470, up 1.95% vs. a year earlier and 14.2% vs. July.

There had been some buzz that the EV giant's sales would near 400,000. BYD may still be somewhat production constrained as it races to meet demand, especially for hybrids. Output was 366,973, below sales once again, with some evidence that official sales were below actual deliveries.

Overseas sales were 31,451, up 25.7% vs. a year earlier and 4.8% vs. July. In addition to exports, BYD has a new plant in Thailand, its first full assembly plant outside China. The EV giant has plans for a number of overseas plants, including Brazil, Hungary and Turkey.

Commercial vehicles, including buses, delivery trucks and more, shot up to 2,229, up 643% vs. a year earlier and 40.7% vs. July.

So far in 2024, BYD has sold 2,328,449 vehicles. It looks set to easily pass the company's official target of 3.6 million EVs, and might reach an unofficial goal of four million.

Over the last three months, BYD has sold 1,057,137 EVs. Overall vehicle sales are well more than double those of Tesla, but the latter still has a slim edge in BEV sales.

Last Wednesday, BYD reported Q2 earnings rose 32% to 43 cents a share, in line with views. Sales jumped 26% to $24.2 billion, but missed forecasts.

BYD launched a few more models Friday at the Changdu auto show, including a hatchback and new minivan.

BYD stock fell 1.6% to 30, back to a cup-with-handle buy point of 30.

jumped 5.2% to 30.50 last week, including Friday's 4.3% rally. Shares cleared the 50-day line and a cup-with-handle buy point of 30.

BYD is up 10.2% so far in 2024, the only EV maker that's positive for the year.

BYD, which trades over the counter in the U.S., is not yet trading Tuesday.

Li Auto Deliveries

Li Auto delivered 48,122 EVs in August, up 37.8% vs. a year earlier but down 5.6% vs. July's record 51,000.

Li Auto mostly sells SUVs that are extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of PHEVs. Its first BEV, the premium Mega minivan, has not sold well.

Li's lowest-priced SUV, the L6, sold more than 20,000 for the third straight month.

On Wednesday, Li Auto reported Q2 earnings tumbled 45% vs. a year earlier, beating views. But revenue rose 10% to $4.36 billion, falling short of views and growth slowing yet again.

Li Auto guided for Q3 deliveries of 145,000-155,000, implying August-September deliveries of 94,000-104,000.

With August deliveries in hand, that assumes September deliveries of 45,878-55,878.

Li Auto stock declined 2.4% to 19 on Tuesday. Shares tumbled 8.3% last week, hitting a 52-week low of 17.44 on Wednesday.

Nio Deliveries

Nio delivered 20,176 vehicles in August, up 4.4% vs. a year earlier, but down 1.6% vs. July's 20,498. It was the fourth straight month of sales topping 20,000.

Unlike BYD and Li Auto, Nio only sells BEVs.

Also Sunday, Nio's new mainstream sub-brand Onvo opened 105 stores. Nio will begin deliveries of the Onvo L60, a Model Y rival later this month.

Nio stock rose 2.7% to 4.15 on Tuesday. Shares fell 1% to 4.04 last week.

XPeng Deliveries

XPeng deliveries came in at 14,036, up 2.5% vs. a year earlier but up 26% vs. July's 11,145. That's far from record levels just above 20,000 from late 2023, but it was the sixth straight month-to-month gain.

On Aug. 27, XPeng formally launched its Mona Mo3, a sedan that's much-cheaper than the Model 3. Mona is XPeng's new affordable subbrand. The EV maker claimed 50,000 orders in the first 72 hours.

The Mona M03, which uses BYD Blade batteries, began initial deliveries Friday, with mass deliveries seen soon.

XPEV stock jumped 4% to 8.37 on Tuesday. Shares surged 14.8% last week, after hitting a 52-week low earlier in August.

Zeekr Deliveries

Zeekr EV deliveries came in at 18,015, up 46.4% vs. a year earlier and 15% vs. July's 15,655. Deliveries tumbled in July as Zeekr began a big production line revamp in late July.

The unit of auto giant Geely debuted the Zeekr 7X SUV on Friday, with deliveries starting by the end of September.

ZK stock dipped 1.4% to 15.95 on Tuesday. Last week, Zeekr stock fell 4.8%, reversing lower from the 50-day line on Friday. Zeekr came public at 21 a share in May, hitting a record 32.24 on May 14. ZK stock hit a record low of 13 on Aug. 12.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock declined 1.6% to 210.60 on Tuesday. Shares fell 2.8% last week, undercutting the 50-day line but finding support near the 200-day. Shares rose 3.8% on Friday.

TSLA stock is in a consolidation with a 271 buy point.

Tesla China sold 86,697 EVs in August, including exports, according to the China Passenger Car Association. That's up 17% vs. July and 3% vs. a year earlier. Tesla China exports have trended lower, so the data likely points to robust local sales. China sales have lower margins than in other markets.

New rivals from Nio, XPeng, BYD and more could prove a challenge in the coming months.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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