China could invade Taiwan within two years, a former US national security adviser has warned.
Despite repeated fears over the future of Taiwan, Robert O’Brien, a former US national security adviser has warned the window for a full scale invasion of the island from the mainland had now shortened even more so.
In 2021, then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, warned at a US Senate hearing that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) attack on Taiwan may occur within the next six years or by 2027.
Amid escalated tensions between the two states, Mr O’Brien told the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun: “I believe that window has gotten smaller, I think it’s down to a year or two.”
Due to the fears of an impending invasion, he called on the US and its allies to give Taiwan the arms and diplomatic ability to defend itself, otherwise “we could be in a very dangerous situation in Taiwan”.
This comes after two Chinese drones were seen over Taiwan in the last week. One TB-001 armed reconnaissance drone was seen flying counter clockwise around the island’s southwest.
A second was seen moving clockwise from north to east and then to the southwest on Wednesday.
“The reality is that Xi Jinping has directed his military to provide him with the military option essentially to be able to take it without concern of our intervention,” US Senate armed services committee, Avril Haines, director of national intelligence said before a US Senate committee.
“And that is something that will have a meaningful impact on his capacity to do so and also his decision-making presumably.”
China views Taiwan as part of its own territory and Xi has vowed to reclaim it.
Last month, the Chinese military began rehearsing the encirclement of Taiwan as part of the army’s military drills.
The Taiwanese Defence Ministry said 71 Chinese military planes and nine ships crossed the Taiwan Strait median line – an unofficial dividing line between Chinese and Taiwanese territory – at around 9am UK time.
Chinese state media said the military drills would “simultaneously organise patrols and advances around Taiwan, shaping an all-round encirclement and deterrence posture”.
Also last month, China announced sanctions against the US in retaliation for House speaker Kevin McCarthy’s meeting with the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen.
The measures announced apply to Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the US, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, and the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank that hosted Ms Tsai in New York and presented her with a leadership award.
While the US has no official relations with Taiwan, Washington maintains informal and commercial ties with the island and has agreed multiple arms deals to supply Taipei.
