A lot can happen in five years. June 2020, or Blue June as I called it, was one of the most depressing periods in recent Supreme Court history. After Justice Kennedy retired, Chief Justice Roberts became the new swing vote, and swung to the left in nearly every case. Perhaps the most confounding decision was Bostock. Justice Gorsuch, joined by Chief Justice Roberts, ruled that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 all along prohibited discrimination against gays, lesbians, and transgender people.
The decision was profoundly wrong. Yet, I think Bostock can be understood, at least in part, as a reflection of the zeitgeist. June 2020 was close to peak woke. The pandemic combined with #MeToo and the George Floyd "racial reckoning" created a perform storm for progressivism. All of the trend lines seemed to be moving towards the acceptance of what is often described as transgender ideology--the argument that biological sex and gender identity were distinct, and that irreversible medical treatment should be provided to minors to conform biological sex sex to gender identity.
But over the past five years, those trend lines reversed. This reversal was due, in part, to new medical information about how puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones affect minors. It was also due to revelations that public schools were secretly transitioning children without their parents' consent. And perhaps most critically, people became no longer afraid to criticize the orthodoxy. The left's most powerful tool was censorship--on social media in particular. But boycotts against Target and Bud Light, as well as demonstrations about biological males competing in female sports, shifted the Overton Window on what could be discussed. (I worry that Justice Barrett would see these movements as "animus.")
