Polling experts have warned Rishi Sunak he “has a lot of work to do” to stand a chance of holding on to power after Labour comfortably won the Chester City by-election.
In the first electoral test for Mr Sunak since he became Prime Minister, local councillor Samantha Dixon held on to the north west England seat with a 10,974 vote victory over the Conservatives.
The result saw a 12 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour which, if repeated at a general election, would be enough to sweep Sir Keir Starmer into No10. Based on vote share it was the worst result for the Conservatives in the constituency since 1832.
“Rishi Sunak is being reminded by the voters of Chester that he’s got quite a lot of work to do to get his party back in a position where we might consider the prospect of the Conservatives winning the next general election,” polling guru Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC.
“This is the best performance by Labour, the biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in any by-election since David Cameron first walked through the door at 10 Downing Street.
“So that’s one indication that Labour are in a stronger position than they’ve been at any previous point when they’ve been trying to challenge the Conservatives over the last dozen years.”
With Sir Keir’s party enjoying a lead of around 20 points over the Tories in the polls, Labour’s victory in a seat it has held since 2015 was not a surprise.
But it is another sign of the mountain Mr Sunak will have to climb to restore the Conservatives’ electoral fortunes as the country faces a growing cost of living crisis.
The by-election was the first since the Tories suffered a double blow in June when Labour won Wakefield and the Liberal Democrats secured a historic victory in Tiverton and Honiton.
It was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Christian Matheson, who stood down after complaints of “serious sexual misconduct” were upheld by a Parliamentary watchdog.
Speaking after the result, Labour’s newest MP Ms Dixon said: “I think I have been in receipt of a very strong message from the voters of Chester that they want the Conservative cost-of-living crisis tackled immediately.
“I don’t think they believe that the Conservatives have the answers, I think they think it’s Labour’s turn now.”
Tory peer and polling expert Lord Robert Hayward said the result showed a slight bounce for Mr Sunak after the chaos of Liz Truss’s premiership and Boris Johnson’s resignation in the summer.
But he added on Sky News: “It’s not just the red wall..all Tory MPs will be looking at this result, looking at local government by elections and being concerned, no question about it, the Tories have got to make progress.
“He [Mr Sunak] might have had a slight bounce...he’s stopped the Tories just collapsing into irrelevance.
“He will take the view that he’s been in the job for just over a month. He knows the challenges. The Tory party knows the challenges and to a large extent the collapse of the Tories in the opinion polls arose from the events right through the summer and the autumn.”
There were further worrying signs for the Conservatives after they lost a local council by-election in the Surrey seat of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
The Liberal Democrats took the Waverley Borough council ward of Chiddingfold and Dunsfold from the Tories with a 66.6 per cent share of the vote. The Conservatives came second on 30.3 per cent.
Although the result is likely to have been influenced by the Green Party’s decision not to stand in the election, it will still be viewed with alarm by Conservatives in traditionally safe ‘blue wall’ seats in the South East.
