There were some peculiar forces at work in last year’s race to be crowned the Cheltenham Festival’s leading trainer.
Gordon Elliott, who took the prize in 2017 and 2018, was suspended, while Henry de Bromhead, having never previously saddled more than two winners at a single Festival, enjoyed a meeting of all meetings to train six.
The British, meanwhile, did not manage that many between them and the home team’s champion, Paul Nicholls, did not register a single one, his first such blank since 2002.
But at the end of it all, in death and taxes fashion, Willie Mullins emerged triumphant, the most successful trainer in Cheltenham history taking his career tally to 78 Festival winners to top the standings for the eighth time.
Mullins heads to Prestbury Park as favourite to make it nine, his dominance in recent years interrupted only by those back-to-back Elliott wins.
Barring Allaho in the Ryanair Chase and perhaps the re-routed Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore, few of the star-studded Closutton team look to have penalty kicks (it would no major shock if, in isolation, any of the likes of Dysart Dynamo, Galopin Des Champs, Facile Vega, Al Boum Photo, Energumene, Vauban or Chacun Pour Soi failed to win their respective races) but the sheer firepower and depth of the Mullins brigade is unrivalled and indeed, has proved crucial - at each of the last three Festivals he has tied on number of winners with another trainer but taken the title on countback of second or even third-placed finishes.
Elliott, by contrast, is slightly lacking in star quality in the Championship races. Galvin is an obvious exception, a leading chance in the Gold Cup, but Teahupoo and Conflated will be relying on supposed bankers to blow out in the Champion Hurdle and Ryanair, while Elliott has no contenders of note in either the Champion Chase or the Stayers’ Hurdle.
But unlike the season-long trainers’ championships - where prize money (and therefore prestige) dictate the victor - no race is worth more than any other in deciding the destination of the Cheltenham title and Elliott arrives at what he hopes will be a redemptive Festival with his biggest ever team (he called it “savage” this weekend), headlined by an exciting crop of novices over both hurdles and fences, and boasting a magnificent record in the handicaps.
There will be a different expectation surrounding De Bromhead after his feats of last March, when, despite being edged out by Mullins in the final race of the week, he left Prestbury Park with the moral victory, having become the first trainer to saddle a holy trinity of winners in the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase.
It is worth remembering however, that the level of success the 49-year-old achieved last year was unexpected and that he was able to rack up six winners without landing a single handicap spoke of the freakish nature of a week when everything just seemed to click.
In his favour, the rotten form that his plagued his string through much of the winter appears to have subsided in the nick of time and his squadron includes bags of horses with proven Cheltenham form, including the shortest-priced favourite of the week in Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle and the Gold Cup one-two from last year, Minella Indo and A Plus Tard.
Across the water, with Nicholls making no secret of his reluctance to prioritise Cheltenham to the same degree as his rivals, Nicky Henderson will fly the flag for the Brits once more.
The Seven Barrows master was the last man not named Elliott or Mullins to win be leading trainer a decade ago and came almightily close to the treble that De Bromhead was so lauded for back in 2018, when Might Bite was a narrow second in the Gold Cup after Altior and Buveur D’Air had won the Champion Chase and Hurdle, respectively.
His runners come in under something of a cloud after an untimely run of poor yard form and all eyes will be on Jonbon and Constitution Hill in the Festival opener to put minds at ease, ahead of Shishkin’s bid for Champion Chase glory 24 hours later.
As with De Bromhead 12 months ago, if he is to worry the Mullins machine, just about everything will have to go right.
