We’re into the home straight now and the Cheltenham Festival is just over a month away.
You often read lists of things to do in the build–up to the best four days in sport but we’ve compiled a list of the top ten things to avoid over the next four and a half weeks.
1. Ante-post betting
Ante-post betting is dead and gone at Cheltenham. It's with O'Leary (no, not Micheal) in the grave. Don’t be sucked in by all the noise over the next couple of weeks and blow all your cash before you even start.
The dilution of the extra races and the concentration of the best horses in so few hands has really changed the landscape of ante-post betting. As has the high street bookmakers’ reluctance to strike any significant bets and offer any decent value.
There is still the odd nugget of course and there’ll be plenty of people holding dockets with fancy prices on horses but in the main you’re better off waiting until the day.
Mighty Potter is 7/4 for the Turner’s Novices’ Chase right now. By lunchtime on the third day he could be 9/4 or 5/2 as bookies nearly always take on the favourite of the opening race.
2. Festival Trends
To some people Cheltenham trends are gospel but to me, they’re mostly nonsense.
Weigh up every race and every horse on their own merits. It’s 25 years since a 10-year-old won the Gold Cup but that let that stat put you off backing Minella Indo. He doesn’t know what age he is and a lot of these horses are very lightly raced these days.
Willie Mullins hadn’t won a Gold Cup in his 30-year career and then won two in succession while Espoir d'Allen and Katchit have blown the myth that five-year-olds can’t win the Champion Hurdle.
Do follow some trainer trends though. Dan Skelton targets the County Hurdle and has won it three times in the past seven seasons while two races that Joseph O’Brien eyes up are the Martin Pipe and the Boodles’ Juvenile Hurdle.
3. Preview nights
First things first. Most Preview Nights are hugely entertaining and a good excuse to get out of the house on these dark nights.
Many are also for charity or local GAA clubs and we’re certainly not putting people off going out and having a bit of craic - particularly if the likes of the always entertaining Davy Russell or Tony Mullins are on a panel.
But as regards information and insight they’re not much use really. Jockeys and trainers are usually pretty guarded and lines like ‘Patrick’s in the Bumper’ or ‘Jamie Codd’s in the National Hunt Chase’ are not exactly exclusives.
4. Looking at the handicaps
Handicaps at Cheltenham are tough - and that’s even when you know what’s running and what weight a horse will be carrying.
Trying to decipher a handicap three weeks before the race or second guess a trainer like Willie Mullins is a risky business and not one we’d like to be involved in.
The new rules surrounding Irish horses and having to run four times to achieve a British mark is also a new unknown for punters and one which might take a few races to form an opinion on.
5. Getting sucked into a late springer
The ‘shroods’ - as some call them - love a late market springer and in recent years there always seems to be a horse that punters latch on to late in the day.
12 months ago, Appreciate It was a popular or ‘shrood’ choice to turnover Honeysuckle despite not having seen a racecourse in 12 months. He was even backed into 100/30.
There’ll be a few this year too. Shishkin is a ‘shrood’ call to end up in the Gold Cup while Sir Gerhard looks like Willie’s mystery horse this year. He’s entered in four races, the three novice chases and the Stayers’ Hurdle!
6. The endless noise
The world has changed and you can now listen to podcasts or YouTube preview shows about Cheltenham for 24 hours a day and seven days a week.
Some of them are good, some of them are not so good, but my advice is to switch them off the ‘experts’ in the week before Cheltenham and give your punting ears some rest. Do some reading instead. Preferably the formbook.
7. Only looking at Irish horses
Seems an odd one to avoid considering Irish-trained horses have dominated in recent times and last year 18 of the 28 races were won by the green team.
That though was a drop of 5 from the previous year and the news rules around handicaps this season are still a bit of an unknown as mentioned above.
There’s also a suspicion that the home side are a little stronger this season than in other years with Constitution Hill, Edwardstone, Hermes Allen, Jonbon, Maries Rock and Luccia all strong favourites for their respective races.
We’re not saying avoid Irish-trained horses in all the races but at the same time don’t dismiss the English in every race either. This year it could be evenly split.
8. Not doing your homework
Information is power at Cheltenham. And that doesn’t mean back a tip you heard down the local pub or on the plane or boat over.
Unless you’re very lucky, to make money at the Festival you need to study the form, and study it hard. As the old saying goes, ‘the best tips are in the formbook.’
The Dublin Racing Festival weekend will prove a good guide to Cheltenham as both Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott ran nearly all their best horses.
Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November and Trials Day in January are another four days that throw up plenty of Festival winners and if you watch any racing in the build up to the Festival, they’re the another two I’d recommend.
9. Not doing the jobs around the house
This one is very important. Whether you’re going to the Cotswolds or watching from home, there are 28 races that need your full and undivided attention.
To keep the significant other in your life (that might not love this week as much as you) content, the best advice we can give is to cut that lawn, paint that spare room, or clean out that shed on the weekend before the Festival starts.
Because come 5.45pm on Friday March 17th, it’s very much back to reality.
10. Not taking annual leave
No one wants to be watching the Champion Chase on their phone while slating a roof or driving a train so book those days off now.
Fortunately the last Cheltenham Gold Cup I didn’t see live was in 1996 when I was covering a schools’ GAA match for the local paper and had to listen to Imperial Call’s win on an old walkman radio.
A schoolboy error and my lesson was learned quickly.
