For years, climate campaigners have claimed that our food supply is under grave threat from climate change caused by excessive fossil fuel use. Ironically, the war in the Middle East is highlighting that the much bigger food challenge for the world is not having enough access to fossil fuels.
Today, half of all the calories we consume are only possible because they are produced with artificial fertilisers, overwhelmingly from natural gas. Without fossil fuels, half the global population would suffer a severe lack of food.
The conflict in the Middle East and blocking of the Hormuz Strait is not just driving up global energy prices. Crucially, a quarter of the world's fertiliser normally passes through the Strait, and the blockade is holding back much of the fertiliser that will help grow the food that will feed the world in the coming year. The UN estimates that this could drive up fertiliser prices 15-20% and push at least another 45 million people into acute hunger.
