In the midst of a rollercoaster season, even by Los Angeles’ usual standards, the Chargers travel to one of the most iconic locations in football on Sunday.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic that LA will leave Lambeau Field with a win.
Turnover prone
Jordan Love is second in the NFL with ten interceptions this season, contributing heavily to Green Bay’s -4 turnover differential. Love is middle of the pack in turnover-worthy play percentage, per PFF, suggesting that he’s been getting unlucky in his first season as a starter.
The Chargers have also been getting unlucky, however. While LA has forced interceptions in 5 of their nine games, 3 of those pick-less outings have come in the past five weeks following the bye week. Los Angeles has found other ways to force turnovers, ranking in the top ten in fumbles forced this season. Love has not been an outstanding quarterback when pressured, which looms large with a dangerous Chargers pass rush on the other side.
Red zone flops
In their last two games, Green Bay has scored a touchdown just twice in nine tries from the red zone. Granted, those came in games against the Rams and Steelers, but if the Chargers defense can hold up inside the 20, a path to victory gets much easier.
LA has shown that ability this season, with a smattering of stops in the red zone that have turned the tide for the Chargers in critical spots. The offense has shown it’ll do its part as long as they can get a few of those at Lambeau. Los Angeles has scored 31.7 points per game in their last three contests, while the Packers haven’t scored more than 20 points since September.
Missing men
Green Bay was missing three of its four starting secondary players last week against the Steelers – cornerback Jaire Alexander missed the game with a shoulder injury, while corner Eric Stokes and safety Darnell Savage are both on injured reserve and are not available to return until after the Chargers game.
Alexander returned to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday, but his status for the game is still in question. Safety Rudy Ford has not practiced all week with a biceps injury. If both miss the game on Sunday, Green Bay would likely start a secondary of Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine at corner and Jonathan Owens and Dallin Leavitt at safety. Nixon is 145th in coverage grade per PFF, Valentine 164th, and Owens 208th of 302 players with at least 90 coverage snaps. That’s not a winning recipe against Justin Herbert.
Bad blitzers
The Chargers have been one of the best offenses against the blitz this season, ranking first in EPA/play and third in success rate when defenses send at least five rushers. Conversely, the Packers have been among the league’s worst when sending pressure. Green Bay ranks 23rd in EPA/play allowed, last in success rate, and second to last in sack rate when they send at least one extra rusher.
The Packers also blitz 40% of the time, meaning there will be ample opportunities for Herbert and the offense to exploit this mismatch. It pairs well with Austin Ekeler rounding back into form as a receiver as he continues to work back from an ankle injury suffered earlier in the season. Combine all of this with potentially the worst secondary on the Chargers’ schedule all year and it should be a morning full of fireworks for LA’s offense.
