With a Jets loss on Thursday night, the Chargers’ playoff chances have increased to 86%. A win on Monday night in Indianapolis boosts those odds to 99%.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic about Los Angeles locking up a playoff spot.
New QB
Indianapolis announced earlier this week that they were again pivoting away from Matt Ryan, turning to veteran Nick Foles to start on Monday night against the Chargers. When asked, Colts interim head coach Jeff Saturday said that Foles gives the Colts their best chance to win, but Foles hasn’t taken reps with the first-team offense all season. In fact, he’s barely taken any reps in the Colts’ offense because he’s been the third-string QB tasked with running the scout team for most of the season. As such, he’s mostly been running other teams’ offenses, even in practice. Thrusting him into the Colts system against Brandon Staley and company seems like a bold decision.
Less threatening run game
Replacing Ryan with Foles is especially odd timing because Indianapolis just placed star running back Jonathan Taylor on injured reserve with a lingering ankle injury that’s hampered him all season. That further hamstrings an offense that is already dead last in the NFL in offensive DVOA, which now will start Foles and Zack Moss in their backfield. Moss struggled to get reps in Buffalo, an average running team at best. He, along with Deon Jackson and Jordan Wilkins, are not as much of a threat as Taylor, who, even when banged up, has forced defenses to devote extra attention to him. It’s a good sign for the Chargers, too, who still give up 5.3 yards per carry, 31st in the NFL.
Dink and dunk
Los Angeles has been susceptible to the big play on defense this season, a big contributing factor in their unit being ranked 17th in the NFL despite flashes of great play. Indianapolis has the lowest average depth of target in the league, though. (Yes, even lower than the Joe Lombardi Stick offense!) The Colts throw the ball just 6.7 yards past the line per play, which allows the Chargers to walk extra defenders into the box and show Nick Foles pressure looks. Michael Davis, in particular, has also been lockdown in short and intermediate areas, allowing less separation than all but 7 NFL cornerbacks this season. That allows LA not only to walk that extra defender into the box but also leave their corners on an island with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce and trust them to come away victorious.
Red zone rock fight
We’ve talked about LA’s red zone struggles this season – the Chargers are tied for 25th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at an even 50%. That’s the same mark as the moribund Broncos offense. However, the Colts have been even worse, clocking in at 31st in the NFL at 45%. That’s with Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger under center and Jonathan Taylor in the game, and now Indianapolis has neither of those things. The Colts will turn to Foles seeking better execution inside the 20, but these stats are often a coaching issue, not a player one. This is evident with the Chargers, who refuse to throw the ball into the end zone when they get into the red zone. On Monday night, it may not matter if the Colts also can’t punch the ball in because Staley is far more likely to get aggressive and go for six than Jeff Saturday.
