The Chargers will head to Cleveland this weekend. This game will be between two 2-2 teams with vastly different narratives thus far this season.
The Browns are mostly just trying to stay in the race until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, while Los Angeles has to be disappointed to have dropped two games this early in the season.
Here are four reasons the Bolts should be confident that they’ll move to 3-2.
Weak defensive front
With Taven Bryan missing Week 4 with a hamstring injury, Cleveland started Jordan Elliott and Tommy Togiai at defensive tackle against the Falcons. Those two are two of the three worst defensive tackles in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. It’s unclear if Bryan will be ready to go by Sunday, but even if he is, he’s 70th in PFF grade among defensive tackles. With Corey Linsley back on the field after missing Week 3 with knee tendinitis, L.A. should be able to move bodies on the interior. Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) is also questionable for this game on the edge, leaving rookies Alex Wright and Isaiah Thomas as the next men up. That’s a favorable matchup for Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins, who have played well above expectations this season.
Underperforming defensive backs
The Browns’ best corner per PFF has been rookie Martin Emerson Jr., a surprising outcome considering big names Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II have been taking their normal complement of snaps. Greedy Williams is also eligible to return from injured reserve this week, which could give Cleveland a boost. But overall, the defensive backs are simply not playing to expectation. The Browns are 18th in pass defense DVOA, despite playing Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitchell Trubisky, and Marcus Mariota. The best of those quarterbacks by DVOA is Mariota at 17th, and he only completed seven passes against Cleveland. Flacco (25th) and Trubisky (27th) have already been benched. Mayfield (31st) is likely on his way if Sam Darnold can return from injured reserve soon. All this is to say, Justin Herbert (5th in DVOA) should be able to carve this secondary up.
Talent advantage
Injuries for both teams have hampered the star power of this matchup. Clowney’s status is, as we mentioned, up in the air. Myles Garrett will play, but there’s a chance he could be hindered by the shoulder injury that held him out last week. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve with his groin injury. But Los Angeles, on paper, is a more talented team than Cleveland. Despite giving up 27 points a game, the Chargers have the offensive firepower to compensate for their defensive deficiencies. If the game becomes a shootout, you have to think Hebert can outduel Jacoby Brissett, even if the latter is playing like a top-12 QB, per DVOA. Cleveland wants to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the run game, but if L.A. can get off to a good start the way they have in every other game, they should have the talent edge to close things out.
Fourth quarter flops
One of the biggest discourse points around the Chargers is their inability to finish games. Los Angeles has given up 75 points in the second half this season, the second worst in the NFL behind only the Lions. Compare that to 33 points allowed in the first half, tied for fourth-best behind San Francisco, Dallas, and Carolina. But Cleveland is dead last in fourth-quarter points allowed at 50, a full point and a half per game worse than the next worst team. Neither of these defenses has come to play later in games so far this season, and again, if that’s the case, Herbert gives the Bolts an edge.
