It’s getting harder and harder to be optimistic about the Chargers. I understand. The team is 2-4 and has only looked worse since the bye week ended. Los Angeles has been incapable of playing complete football. It’s been a tough start to the season.
But there are still glimmers of hope for LA, especially on Sunday against a Bears team that’s been even more dysfunctional than them and is currently starting an undrafted rookie from Division II at quarterback.
Secret Bagent
Let’s start with the obvious: Chicago’s starting quarterback on Sunday will be rookie Tyson Bagent, an undrafted free agent from Division II Shepherd in West Virginia. That doesn’t tell his whole story – Bagent was a draftable player who had opportunities to play for Power 5 teams in 2022 – but it’s the neatest explanation for what’s going on under center for the Bears.
Chicago also appears to be at risk of missing starting right tackle Darnell Wright and guard Nate Davis on Sunday, as both players did not participate in practice on Wednesday. That could leave the Bears with their third and fourth offensive tackles and a liability (Cody Whitehair) on the field. The last time the Chargers played a former Khalil Mack team starting a rookie quarterback behind a suspect offensive line, Mack sacked Aidan O’Connell six times.
Is that a reasonable expectation for this week? Probably not, but the Chargers will have opportunities to heat up an underseasoned quarterback on Sunday night. Bagent’s film to this point suggests he’s willing to make mistakes when the pressure starts to get home.
Juiceless pass rush
Chicago’s best pass rusher by PFF win rate is rookie defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr., who’s won 11.7% of his reps this season. If that number seems low, it’s because it is! Dexter is 77th in the NFL in the metric among players with at least 79 pass rush snaps, behind four Chargers players. It’s not until 113th place that you find Chicago’s first edge rusher, veteran DeMarcus Walker, who has won less than 10% of his pass rush reps.
In short, the Bears cannot rush the passer. Like, at all. This is a significant detail for a Chargers team that desperately needs a get-right game for the offensive line after facing two top-five defenses in the NFL. For what it’s worth, Dallas and Kansas City combine to have eight players above the Dexter line.
So, Los Angeles should be able to protect Justin Herbert on Sunday. This should lead to longer-developing plays down the field, like shots to Quentin Johnston or a likely-to-return Jalen Guyton, which should lead to ample points for the Chargers, which usually leads to a win.
Coaching advantage
I know we’re all sick of hearing about the coaching situation for the Chargers. No matter where on the spectrum of evaluation, there has been something to be mad about. Fourth down decisions (in both directions). Defensive miscommunications. Offensive snoozers in critical spots. The list goes on.
But, if you can believe it, the Bears have been worse under Matt Eberflus to start the season. After defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team under vague circumstances, Eberflus took over defensive playcalling and has piloted that unit to a dismal 28th in DVOA. General manager Ryan Poles called a rare in-season press conference to tell the media that the Bears weren’t panicking in Week 3. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and starting quarterback Justin Fields have been on different pages all season. Getsy’s playcalling has been so predictable that the Buccaneers intercepted a screen for a touchdown and said postgame it was because Getsy had run that exact play from that precise formation on the two snaps prior.
Things have settled a bit, with the Bears winning two games over the Commanders and Brian Hoyer-led Raiders, but neither of those teams have been particularly inspiring this season either. For the first time in what feels like a long time, the Chargers have the advantage on the sidelines, at least on paper.
Not that kind of defensive battle
Chicago, as mentioned, is 28th in defensive DVOA. The Chargers, never to be outdone, are 29th. It sets up a twisted version of the defensive battle: this game will probably not end 6-3, but the first team to do something that resembles stopping their opponent will likely come away victorious.
So, which team seems more likely to do that? The Bears, who cannot generate a pass rush against one of the league’s premier passers and an offense still 6th in EPA/play? Or the Chargers, who cannot defend the pass against a rookie playing behind an offensive line one more injury away from starting you, the reader?
Yes, Los Angeles needs to bring their corners closer to the line of scrimmage against a player whose average air yards is 2.5 yards lower than any other quarterback in the league with at least 50 dropbacks. But that’s a more straightforward fix than conjuring a pass rush out of thin air. Even with all things equal, in a world where the Chargers play their defensive backs 12 yards off the ball to prevent a DJ Moore kill-shot, LA should still have the upper hand.
