The Chargers return from the bye on Sunday to face the Falcons, an unlikely first-place team through eight weeks of the season.
Los Angeles’ injury luck has not turned even with an extra rest week, making Sunday’s contest feel much closer than it should, given the preseason expectations of these two teams.
Here’s what L.A. needs to do to come away with a victory.
Find offensive contributors
We know Mike Williams and Joshua Kelley will miss this game. Keenan Allen aggravated his hamstring injury during the bye week, despite contrasting reports from Brandon Staley. Donald Parham Jr. looked set to come back from a concussion, only to be added to the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue. Even kicker Dustin Hopkins and backup kicker Taylor Bertolet are on the injury report. Someone for Los Angeles has to step up beyond just Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler. Maybe that’s Josh Palmer putting together his best game of the season as he returns from a Week 7 concussion. But more likely, it’ll need to be an unheralded name. Isaiah Spiller as RB2 behind Ekeler. Michael Bandy or a practice squad receiver like Keelan Doss, who was promoted. Whoever it is, the Chargers need someone to step up and produce because we’ve seen what this offense looks like without Allen. Now without Williams, there’s little reason to be optimistic about moving the ball if nobody answers the call.
Run the ball effectively
Speaking of moving the ball, one of the biggest reasons the Chargers haven’t been able to do so is that the running game is not functioning well. The blame is easy to place on offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi (more on that in a bit), but I think Lombardi’s run game calls have been the most creative and effective part of this offense. The issue is the blocking, especially on the interior. As Daniel Popper of The Athletic pointed out in this week’s mailbag, the Chargers have been at their most effective running the ball when center Corey Linsley has been 100%. That’s been a rarity, but it should be true on Sunday. Combine health, relatively speaking, with the creativity Lombardi has shown as a play-caller, and it should result in a big game on the ground. With the injuries at wide receiver, that’s exactly what the Chargers need.
Call a complete game
Okay, back to Lombardi and the blame game. Multiple things about this offense are true. Lombardi has shied away from dialing up the deep shots we’ve come to expect from Justin Herbert. That’s partly on Lombardi, of course, but it’s also that the Chargers find themselves in a lot of second or third and longs due to their poor run game. It’s also partly because Herbert’s rib injury has affected his ability as a passer. Herbert just wrapped up the worst five game stretch of his career by EPA/play, and not all of that can be waved away by playcalling or injuries to other personnel. He’s fighting every week, and credit to him, but the rib is clearly bothering him.
This, again, brings us back to the offensive coordinator because what is also true about this offense is that it’s falling flat for reasons beyond the injuries. With Herbert’s injury, Lombardi’s playsheet feels like it’s shrunk to just Stick, Hank, and the occasional Austin Ekeler screen. He has to do better, and he’s had the bye week to cook up some new variations. If LA is going to pull this one out even with all the talent missing on offense, it has to be because Lombardi reaches into his bag and produces something new.
Keep Marcus Mariota in the pocket
Atlanta has one M.O. on offense: get Mariota on the move. One of their most effective plays has been running crossers to the right side as Mariota rolls that way off of play action, primarily because it puts any zone defender in that half of the field in conflict as they follow Mariota’s eyes. If that defender crashes down to protect against a scramble, Mariota throws it over their head. If they stay home, Mariota can tuck and run, where he’s proven to be dangerous as well. The Chargers have to protect against this outcome, especially because of how poor the tackling has been this season, by playing outside contain. This has its risks, namely that Atlanta will use Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley as battering rams on the inside as a counter. But it’s a risk worth taking because if Mariota has to shorten his bootleg to remain inside the tackle box, things get much harder. Every single one of his six interceptions this season has come between the numbers.
Limit the explosive play
The Chargers are 31st in plays of 35 or more yards allowed this season with 13, per TruMedia. Again, there are multiple reasons for this, in my opinion. Joey Bosa’s absence has decimated this run defense, especially on the outside. Running backs can direct plays behind the tackle blocking a Chargers defender not named Khalil Mack, at which point defenders in the second and third levels have struggled to make tackles. Kenneth Murray in particular has struggled, logging a 28.4 PFF grade as a run defender on 113 snaps thus far. But the pass defense has given up 8 of these 13 plays as well. Maybe it’s as simple as chalking that up to JC Jackson losing track of his zone responsibilities, and we can close that case. But if it’s not, and I don’t think it is, LA had plenty of time to get their defensive miscommunications ironed out. On Sunday, they need to show their work if the Chargers will come away with the victory.
Generate momentum plays
LA is 4-3 coming into this game and will drop to .500 if they lose, with clashes against the 49ers and Chiefs next up on the schedule. PFF says the Chargers have the 4th hardest remaining schedule in the league. Although they still have a 47% chance to make the playoffs, per PFF, coming away from this game with something to feel positive about is paramount. The offense needs to find some sort of rhythm. The defense could use a turnover or two, especially ones that lead directly to points. A special teams splash play could flip the momentum of this game just as easily as an offensive or defensive one. This will likely be a one-possession game, but it needs to be one that the Chargers a) win and b) feel good about. They’re 3-1 in one-possession games this season, but all three wins came with growing pains. Against the Raiders, the game shouldn’t have been one possession in the first place. The Cleveland game was mired in controversy over Brandon Staley’s decision to go for it on fourth and two and felt more like an escape than a victory. Ditto for the Broncos game, in which the offense could only muster 19 points in an overtime contest. The best possible path to victory, on Sunday and beyond, is for LA to convert on big plays of their own and feel like they went out and took a game for perhaps the first time this season.
