The Chargers come into Week 8 with their season hanging in the balance. A 2-5 start would be tough to shake off, especially with their schedule not getting much easier from here. While no opponent should be overlooked in the NFL, this is the kind of game LA must win for any chance at being a playoff contender.
This is the Chargers’ last opportunity of the season to have an actual get-right game to put their season back on track. Let’s take a look at how they can do that.
Playing physical, efficient defense near the LOS
To some extent, I understand why the Chargers came into Dallas and Kansas City with the game plans they did. Against Miami and Tennesee, they got burnt by the deep plays downfield. Their response after that was to drop everyone back with a lot of soft zone and prevent looks. That approach didn’t go well in either of their last two games.
Simply put, that’s not how they will win this game either. The Bears are going to throw everything short near the line of scrimmage. Backup quarterback turned starter Tyson Bagent had an ADOT of 2.5 yards against the Raiders. D.J. Moore’s ADOT was 4.1 yards.
Here's how often defenses face screen passes (x-axis), and how well they defend them (y-axis). Not great that the Chargers are the worst team at defending screen passes and they face the Bears who rank 2nd in screen rate offensively https://t.co/CNySR9gajP pic.twitter.com/MlzkeYW87V
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 25, 2023
The Bears also run the second-most screens of any team in the league. The Chargers are statistically the worst team at defending screens. Something has to change if you’re LA.
Chicago will keep its game plan simple with Bagent in at quarterback. Brandon Staley knows everything that will be thrown his way on Sunday whether it’s end-arounds, screens, quick game concepts, etc., It’ll be a matter of whether his defense is ready to play physical, efficient football near the line for four quarters.
No excuse for a bad OL game
Staley and Moore routinely praised the Kansas City and Dallas defensive lines during the last two weeks. And while the Chargers’ offensive line has its own set of issues, they were right. The fronts they had to contain the previous two weeks were suboptimal matchups.
The same excuse cannot be used for this Bears’ pass rush. Chicago has the second-fewest sacks of any team in the league, with just ten on the year. The advanced stats bear out the same thing for the most part. Only two Chicago defensive players have win rates over 10% against blocking.
For Will Clapp and Zion Johnson, this should be a relatively simple bounce-back performance. Rashawn Slater will look to continue the momentum with how he played last game.
While Herbert has been getting pressured a lot in part because of the offensive line, he can’t make the coverage sack mistakes that he did against Kansas City. He’ll also have to manage the protection schemes of the line a little bit better than he has been.
All in all, the Chargers cannot allow a fourth straight game of nonstop pass rush pressure against this specific Chicago group. It would be a sign of much larger problems.
Justin Herbert get-right game
The Chargers are 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Chicago is not too far removed from that pace at 29th in the league with 257.1 yards allowed per game through the air. If there’s a week for Justin Herbert to have his get-right game, it’s this one.
Safeties Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker are also questionable for Sunday’s game. With the lack of pressure the Bears tend to manufacture, plus the secondary reeling, this should have 30+ point potential written all over it.
The hesitance to trust the offense in this game is understandable. But the Chargers are probably due for a little positive regression and are facing the weakest defense they’ll probably play all year. If it’s not now for Moore, Herbert, and company, when is it?
I’m not sure we’ll see him match his 400+ yard game vs. Minnesota, but the improved pass blocking and a defense less likely to be able to keep up with Keenan Allen for four quarters will create those opportunities. As Herbert said this week on the chances he’s missed, it’ll be on him to make them. And I trust he will in this one.
How good is this run defense, really?
After bottoming out last season, the Chargers are a top-10 run defense with 96.8 rush yards allowed per game in 2023. Who knows if that ends up holding up by the end of the season, but there is some credit to be given out there on a year-to-year improvement basis.
The Bears, however, will undoubtedly be a stress test of just how far all three levels of the defense have come in terms of stopping the run. Chicago has three more rushing attempts than it does passing attempts on the year. In their last three games, the Bears have put up 513 yards on the ground.
While the run defense has been better, the Chargers haven’t played an actual ground-and-pound opponent outside of perhaps Tennessee. If LA is going to take home the win, the Bears cannot run at the 150-200-yard pace that they have been.
A little more 4th down aggression
Brandon Staley has generally been pretty aggressive on 4th down this year. Entering the Dallas game, the Chargers’ coach had the highest percentage of scenarios where he went for it on 4th down when the models said to go for it.
In Kansas City, though, Staley punted on 4th and 5 at midfield before the half. That punt resulted in a Chiefs’ offensive drive that made the score 24-17. With six minutes left in the fourth quarter, Staley decided to punt the ball on the Chargers’ 27-yard line. Mecole Hardman turned on the burners for a 58-yard return and the game was practically over there.
One could say it’s the Bears’ offense and that’s reason enough to play conservatively. But 2-4, backs against-wall mentality cannot be cowardly. We may discuss the unofficial end of more than just the 2023 season with a loss. If the macro of this season has taught us anything, it’s to trust Herbert and the offense over this defense. Staley must put all the poker chips in the middle of this game.
