The Chargers meet a spiritual equal on Sunday, facing a Vikings team well acquainted with the sort of heartbreak Los Angeles’ fans have come to expect.
With both teams standing at 0-2 despite productive offensive performances, something has to give.
Buy Chargers TicketsHere are four reasons to be concerned about a 0-3 start for L.A..
Justin Jefferson
If you thought watching this Chargers pass defense try to guard Tyreek Hill was agonizing in Week 1, wait until the best receiver in the league gets his turn on Sunday. Jefferson’s yardage over/under opened at a whopping 101.5 yards and it would be a shock if LA held him under 150 yards for the first time this season.
LA did perform well against Tennessee’s No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but he was hampered with an injury and plays a style of football that plays into the Chargers secondary’s strengths. With the Chargers rotating JC Jackson, Michael Davis, and Asante Samuel Jr. at outside corner, there’s a real risk that none of them get into a rhythm while trying to slow the Vikings superstar.
All that could make for another infuriating showing from the pass defense, especially if Jefferson can convert those opportunities into long gains and touchdowns the way Hill did in Week 1.
Pass rate
Don’t be fooled by the headliner Jefferson here – the Chargers have shown they’re more than willing to give up the big play to secondary options, too. Look at the Titans game, where Treylon Burks hauled in a 70-yard reception and Chris Moore grabbed a 49-yard one on his only target.
Minnesota is not lacking for pass-catching weapons, either. Rookie Jordan Addison has touchdown receptions of 39 and 62 yards through the first two weeks of the season. Tight end TJ Hockenson was given the biggest contract in the history of the position and has drawn 17 targets through two weeks. Third receiver KJ Osborn has been inconsistent but has had six targets in each game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is second in the NFL in passing yards, behind only Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
The Vikings have leaned into this identity as a passing team, throwing the football the fourth-most often of any team through two weeks of the season. For a Chargers defense struggling so mightily to stop the pass – LA is allowing the most passing yards in the NFL – facing such a pass-heavy team could spell disaster.
Money downs
After going 9-15 on third downs in Week 1, the Chargers were just 2-14 on third down against the Titans. Los Angeles went for it on fourth down three times, converting on each opportunity, but were still conservative in what’s become the characteristic fashion for Brandon Staley’s once hyper-aggressive team.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have converted third downs at the second-best rate in the league so far, moving the chains on exactly half of their opportunities. That includes a 6-10 rate against the Eagles, one of the best defenses in football, last week. The Chargers are also 24th in third down conversion rate allowed, letting their opponents generate a first down on 45.45% of their opportunities.
Minnesota is only 15th in that metric, allowing a third down conversion rate of 38.71%, so it’s not like the Vikings’ defense is a vaunted unit to be deeply feared. But in a game between two high-powered offenses with less-than-stellar defenses, one of these teams will have to win on the margins. That likely means the team better at converting those money plays on key downs has the upper hand.
Chaos theory
The Chargers and Vikings are kindred spirits: franchises that have constantly found new and innovative ways to lose football games in the most painful ways possible. LA has the Nate Kaeding miss against the Jets; Minnesota has the Blair Walsh kick against the Seahawks. Both teams have almost always had a franchise quarterback to build around, or at least a competent one they didn’t need to actively look for a replacement for.
What happens when two teams built to lose games in the most convoluted, agonizing ways meet one another? Does it become a completely normal, 24-17 football game? Do we get a tie after both teams miss kicks in overtime? Even if the score looks normal, what rare football plays will get us there?
If chaos is on the menu, it could be at the expense of the Chargers, who have yet to turn the ball over this season. (Minnesota has turned it over seven times already in two games.) LA has already made history with their 0-2 start despite scoring more than 50 points and keeping the ball safe. What’s a little more?
