The Chargers open their season on Sunday with a showdown between Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, two of the top three quarterbacks from the 2020 NFL draft.
While Herbert got the better of Tagovailoa’s Dolphins last season, there are reasons to be concerned Miami fires back this weekend.
Speed, speed, and more speed
The Dolphins were already a fast team with Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Raheem Mostert. Then they added rookie running back De’Von Achane, a 10.14 100-meter runner who posted a 4.32 40 at the combine.
Miami has also shown in the preseason that they’ve adjusted their offense to showcase that speed even further, especially on the ground. The Dolphins’ run game clicked all preseason, with Mostert, Achane, and Salvon Ahmed all having productive stretches. Whether that translates on Sunday with Terron Armstead potentially out with injury remains to be seen. Regardless, the Chargers don’t possess those same quicks on defense, even with the recent additions of more athletically gifted players.
Man-heavy defense
Los Angeles was extremely successful in this matchup last season when playing man coverage. Michael Davis had his trademark game of the season shutting down Hill, while Asante Samuel Jr. and Ja’Sir Taylor cleaned up against Waddle. The Chargers played a ton of Cover 1 with robbers over the middle against Miami, forcing Tagovailoa to find throws outside the numbers.
Those outer edges of the field have been where the Dolphins’ QB has struggled the most in his career, and Miami tried to mitigate that deficiency by running timing routes meant to be thrown to a spot. Those throws were taken away by the robbers in LA’s coverage a season ago, leading to a 37.5% completion percentage for Tagovailoa on the day.
On the surface, it’s not likely that the Dolphins will make the same mistakes again. The preseason has been littered with examples of Miami running more routes with leverage and physicality, designed to beat aggressive man coverage. In last season’s game, Mike McDaniel didn’t make quick adjustments to pivot to these throws, nor did they stick with the run game against an extremely poor run defense missing two of their starting defensive linemen.
The Vic Fangio effect
Miami made one of the splashiest coordinator hires of the offseason by convincing Fangio to end his one-year hiatus from the league. While the personnel and scheme don’t necessarily fit together on paper, Fangio is one of the only modern defensive minds with a bona fide coaching tree for a reason.
Ostensibly, the Chargers should have a leg up against a Fangio defense. Brandon Staley is one of the coordinator’s more notable disciples, plenty familiar with the types of coverages and rush schemes the Dolphins will be sending. Miami’s pass game coordinator Renaldo Hill was the Chargers’ defensive coordinator last season – theoretically, Los Angeles knows what Hill likes to put together.
There’s one issue here: Fangio shut down both Kellen Moore in their last matchup. A 30-16 victory over Moore’s Cowboys in 2021 was one of the season’s biggest upsets and temporarily saved Fangio’s job. Does Moore have something up his sleeve with a new set of offensive personnel?
Run defense: believe it when you see it
Miami ran the ball just 19 times against the Chargers last season, even with LA missing Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson on the defensive line. Those rushes garnered 92 yards, a per carry average of 4.8. Even so, the Dolphins seemed eager to get away from the ground game as much as possible in that game.
This time around, the Chargers will have everyone at full strength and are coming off a preseason in which their run defense looked improved. However, San Francisco ran for 5.2 yards per carry in the preseason finale, dredging old demons regarding this defense. With a rushing attack that’s worked all preseason behind an offensive line that gelled quickly this summer, Miami could exploit what is a weakness of the Chargers’ defense until proven otherwise.
