Entire villages swamped, crops destroyed, disease now spreading and more than 1,000 people dead, Pakistan's record-breaking floods have left behind a trail of disaster.
Extreme rainfall — along with melting glaciers in the country's north — have affected a third of the country.
A weather pattern known as the South Asian Monsoon descends on the country each year between June and September, often bringing much-needed rain after summer.
But research shows the annual monsoons are getting wetter and more dangerous because of climate change.
The floods bear the hallmarks of a changing climate, CSIRO climate scientist Michael Grose said.
"A warmer climate means that you have more intense rainfall … and glaciers are more likely to melt and collapse quicker," Dr Grose said.
"Both of those things came together in this tragic event in Pakistan."
Pakistan has received nearly three times more rain than the 30-year average in the three months to August this year.
Dr Grose said careful analysis was needed to fully determine the impact of climate change on the recent flood, and to understand how a warming climate could impact rainfall across seasons.
However, he said, no-one should doubt the influence of climate change on what has occurred.
'A charged environment'
Pakistan's tense political and economic situation has complicated flood preparedness and will hamper the monumental recovery effort to come.
In April, Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed after losing a no-confidence motion in parliament.
Ever since, supporters of Mr Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party have continued to rally, calling for new elections.
University of Western Australia professor Samina Yasmeen — the founder of UWA's centre for Muslim states and societies — noted that sentiment remained strong, despite the disastrous flooding.
"Even when the floods had started wreaking havoc on people in Balochistan, the south-western province, it was really intriguing to see that the rallies continued," she said.
Professor Yasmeen said the country had a "a very charged environment", but political instability was not the only distraction.
Pakistanis have been living through an economic crisis as COVID-19 restrictions and infections, rising inflation and increased food insecurity caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict worsen living conditions, Professor Yasmeen said.
Since coming to power, the new government has been dealing with rising foreign debt, and has been trying to negotiate a bailout.
"The [government's] focus was on trying to get the loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund worked out," Professor Yasmeen said.
"I think total attention to what was happening in people's lives was really missing, and that's really complicated the whole story."
Not the first time
Flood damage to infrastructure and crops will magnify the existing economic and food security troubles.
Even before the floods, the United Nations World Food Programme estimated a fifth of the population was undernourished and 40 per cent of young children were stunted.
More than 809,371 hectares of agricultural land has been flooded, destroying most standing crops and preventing farmers from sowing new ones, Pakistani officials said.
In some parts of the country, fruit and vegetable prices have already tripled.
The brunt of the disaster will be felt by the poor who were already suffering, Professor Yasmeen said.
"Many people have been traumatised," she said.
In 2010, Pakistan experienced devastating floods, for which the UN issued its largest disaster appeal to date, asking for $US2 billion to assist the estimated 20 million people impacted.
However, new Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the current floods were even more devastating than the 2010 floods, calling them the worst in the country's history.
Lessons were learned after the 2010 floods but they were not implemented, Professor Yasmeen said.
She said there was a clear need for disaster management and capacity-building support from other nations to help Pakistan prepare for future disasters.
Pakistan is not alone
In the last month, floods and landslides have killed and displaced people across Asia — from India and Sri Lanka, to Indonesia and South Korea.
According to the 2021 Global Climate Risk Index, six of the top 10 countries most impacted by extreme weather in the last decade are in Asia.
The report's authors said the analysis reconfirmed earlier results of the Climate Risk Index: that less-developed countries were generally more affected than industrialised nations.
Dr Grose said the impacts of disasters such as floods depended not only on the event itself, but also on the levels of development and poverty of the communities exposed to the danger.
More resources were needed to raise resilience and adaptive capacity to these extreme events, he said.
"Places like Pakistan are feeling disproportionate impacts of a changing and warming climate, and they contributed relatively little to the overall [carbon emissions] issue," he said.
ABC/Reuters
