The vigorous spell of heavy rain that lashed most parts of Kerala in the first week of July has helped the State reduce its rain deficit to 33%. June came as a big disappointment for Kerala, with the State recording around 48% drop in the long period average of rainfall.
Though the July forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) hinted below-normal rainfall in some parts of the south peninsula, including Kerala, the late surge aided by the low pressure over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough running from the Gujarat coast to the Karnataka coast, especially in north and central Kerala, helped the State bridge the gap to some extent.
According to the statistics available with the IMD, the southwest monsoon has slipped into the red in the first month of its arrival in Kerala 27 times during the period between 1901 and 2021. Out of these 27 years, only seven times the season ended with deficient rainfall, and 20 times the deficit was wiped out by heavy rain in the succeeding months. Interestingly, out of the 27 deficient June rain in 121 years, nine rain-deficient June were in the current millennium (between 2002 to 2021).
Further, when June witnessed deficient rain nine times in the current millennium (2002, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2019, 2021 and 2022), July also fell in the deficient category in those years, according to the statistics.
S. Abhilash, Director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at the Cochin University of Science and Technology (Cusat), said the pattern of rain in Kerala has changed significantly in the last decade. In the past, if June and July registered a drop in rainfall, the chances for a deficient season was quite high. But now, a wet week is enough to wipe out the shortfall in rain in a month, he said.
“This is mainly because of climate change. In the present case as well, the shortfall in the entire one month could be bridged to some extent by just one week’s heavy rain in July, and there is a chance for the rain to continue for the next one week as well. This is enough to bring the rain to normal from the red,” said Mr. Abhilash.
The rain is expected to take a short break by the middle of July and would be active by the end of the month as per the current atmospheric conditions, said IMD sources.
