India is fielding a jumbo contingent of around 650 athletes at the Asian Games in Hangzhou. Although the event officially commences on September 23, having been postponed from 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some competitions started from September 19. It presents a valuable opportunity to gauge India’s performance against top Asian competitors, just 10 months ahead of the Paris Olympics.
Historically, India tends to excel in the Asian Games, accumulating a significant medal count, but struggles to replicate this success on the global Olympic stage. In the previous cycle, India secured 70 medals (16 gold, 23 silver, and 31 bronze) in 36 sports at the Asian Games, yet managed only seven medals (1 G, 2 S, and 4 B) across 18 sports at the subsequent Tokyo Olympics. In the cycle before that, India won 57 medals (28 sports) in Incheon and followed it up with just two medals (15 sports) at the Rio Olympics.
To compete in 38 disciplines
India’s performance at the Hangzhou Asian Games, where it will compete in 38 disciplines, offers a glimpse into its Olympic prospects. While securing silver or bronze at the Asian Games is commendable, it doesn’t necessarily translate into podium success at the Olympics. The journey from continental excellence to global supremacy is fraught with challenges.
Take, for example, the women’s 100m hurdles, where Jyothi Yarraji is a strong contender for gold. Her rivalry with Japan’s Mako Fukube — second to Fukube among the fastest hurdlers in Asia — is intense, yet Yarraji’s impressive season-best time of 12.78 seconds places her 40th in the world rankings, underscoring the global competition’s intensity.
However, as history has shown, an athlete’s best performance on the day can propel them to Olympic glory, even if their season performance falls short. Neeraj Chopra’s Olympic gold in Tokyo is a prime example. His throw of 86.79m was only the sixth-best that year, yet he clinched gold with a remarkable 87.58m, while his competitor Johannes Vetter, known for consistent 90m-plus throws, could only manage 82.52m in the final.
India is expected to contest for gold in approximately eight of the 26 events at the Hangzhou Asian Games, where over 110 gold medals are up for grabs. Notably, in chess, eSports, squash, kabaddi, compound archery, bridge, and cricket, India boasts strong contenders, even though these events are not part of the Olympic program.
Neeraj Chopra, top contender
India’s top contender across various disciplines is javelin thrower Neeraj Chopra. He is the reigning Olympic and world champion and has consistently secured gold at different levels of competition. In the upcoming Asian Games, Chopra, aiming to defend his title, is expected to be the frontrunner. However, he will approach this competition cautiously, as he is also scheduled to participate in the Diamond League final just two weeks before the Asian Games.
Chopra has faced challenges with a groin injury, and his primary focus is to finish the year without any injuries and kickstart the Olympic year on a healthy note.
Chopra’s chances of making the podium in Paris are promising but not guaranteed. His competitors, Jakub Vadlejch (90.88m) and Arshad Nadeem (90.18m), who have also qualified for the Olympics, have better personal best throws than Chopra’s 89.94m. While Vadlejch has a season-best of 89.51m, Chopra has demonstrated consistency with three throws exceeding 88 metres in just five outings this season, a feat Vadlejch has achieved in 12 attempts.
Chopra will face off against Vadlejch and Julian Weber in the Diamond League final, and he will also compete against Nadeem in the Asian Games before the year concludes.
In athletics, India has 40 gold medals on offer and has an opportunity to improve on its 2018 Games’ haul of eight golds. In the recently concluded Asian Athletics Championships in Bangkok, India won six golds among its best haul of 27 medals in what was an encouraging display.
Good chance in long jump
India’s next best bet would be Jeswin Aldrin and Murali Sreeshankar in the long jump. They had the two best jumps this season before the World Championships but have now been pushed to third and fourth on the list after an underwhelming stint in Budapest last month. Jeswin started the year with 8.42m in March but has struggled to come close to that mark in his five other 8m-plus jumps. Sreeshankar has had a good year too, with six 8m-plus jumps, but did not qualify for the final of the World Championships, while China’s Jianan Wang made the last 12 after a season-best 8.34m. Wang will provide the challenge, along with Chinese Taipei’s Yu-tang Lin.
In the men’s triple jump, continent leader Praveen Chithravel (17.37m) will offer hope for gold. The 22-year-old has consistently improved but hasn’t been able to medal in the Commonwealth Games or World Championships in the last 12 months. Chithravel is currently fifth on the world list, and a podium finish can help boost his push in the Olympic year.
Among the pack, Ajay Kumar Saroj (1500m), Krishan Kumar (800m), Tajinderpal Singh Toor (shot put), Avinash Sable (3000m steeplechase) and the 4x400m relay teams (men, women and mixed) will be in the hunt for gold. These names are among the leading athletes in Asia this year, but unfortunately, they fall short in the world rankings. Tajinder, who holds the Asian record, is the 13th best thrower in the world.
Resurgence of hockey team
Indian hockey’s recent resurgence, including the Tokyo Olympics bronze, faced a setback with a disappointing ninth-place finish at the home World Cup earlier this year. However, a change in coaching has had a positive impact.
India has a few chinks in its armour but will be the favourite to win gold in Hangzhou and seal an automatic Olympics berth. Craig Fulton’s India will also be a contender to make the podium in Paris next year. However, the competition will be tough, with Australia, world champion Germany, European champion Netherlands, and the ever-improving Great Britain also in the mix.
Good chance in badminton
In badminton, the Indian duo of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty are likely to excel. They hold the second position in the world rankings, only trailing behind Indonesia’s Fajar Alfian and Muhammad Rian Ardianto. Interestingly, the Indonesian pair has a less favourable head-to-head record against the Indian team, with three losses in five encounters. Notably, Rankireddy and Shetty emerged victorious against Alfian and Ardianto in the Korea Open final, securing the championship title in July.
In the men’s singles, the resurgent H. S. Prannoy could potentially surprise many on a good day. He is currently ranked sixth in the world and made a remarkable achievement by defeating the world’s number one player, Viktor Axelsen, in the quarterfinals of the World Championships. However, he faced a setback in the semifinals despite holding an advantageous position against Thailand’s Kunlavut Vitidsarn.
On the other hand, two-time Olympic medallist PV Sindhu has fallen out of the top 10 rankings this year, making it challenging to identify another strong medal contender in badminton. Nevertheless, if India aims to compete for Olympic glory next year, they will likely need to outperform the dominant Asian badminton nations, including China, Indonesia, and South Korea. These countries have collectively earned 88 medals in badminton over the last eight Games. As world boxing champions Nikhat Zareen (50kg) and Lovlina Borgohain (75kg) enter the squared circle in Hangzhou, they are strong favourites to clinch the title and secure their spots for the Paris Olympics. While Borgohain has already earned Olympic honours, Nikhat faces uncertainty regarding her future in boxing after the 2024 Olympics. Therefore, she is eager to maximise every opportunity.
However, both athletes have been absent from competitive boxing since the World Championships in March. They are hoping to shake off any potential ring rust and perform at their best on the grand stage.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and China, who have a strong record in both the continental championships and the Olympics, will pose the biggest threat to India. But even if India strikes rich at the Asian Games, the competition will get wider at the Olympics, with the top-four Olympic medallists — USA, Cuba, Great Britain, and Italy — also joining the fight.
All eyes on Mirabai Chanu
Olympic silver medallist weightlifter Mirabai Chanu faced a setback in her quest for gold when China’s Jiang Huihua broke her clean-and-jerk world record by lifting 120kg in the 49kg women’s category at the World Championships. Huihua also set a new world record for the total lift with 215kg, surpassing Hou Zhihui’s record by two kg, which was set in 2021. Following the weigh-in, Chanu withdrew from the Worlds.
Huihua had previously outperformed Chanu at last year’s World Championships, pushing the Indian athlete into second place. It’s clear that Chanu is likely reserving her best performance for the Asian Games, where she will strive to secure a spot on the podium. However, surpassing Huihua will indeed be a formidable challenge and might require a remarkable effort.
Expects world-class skills from shooters
Indian shooters aim to leave the Tokyo Olympics disappointment behind and demonstrate their world-class skills in Hangzhou. Among the 33 Indian shooters, the focus will be on Mehuli Ghosh, the national record holder, and former world champion Rudrankksh B. Patil in the 10m air rifle events. They will face tough competition from the home team. India had a successful World Championship in Baku recently, securing six gold and eight bronze medals and ranking third behind China and Ukraine.
The Chinese flexed their dominance and bench strength by picking a young team for the Asian Games. In the 10m air rifle, Worlds runner-up Wang Zhilin got the nod ahead of gold medallist Han Jiayu.
In the men’s field, China has Sheng Lihao and Du Linshu, who won gold and silver in the Bhopal leg of the Shooting World Cup in March, with Rudrankksh placed third. Interestingly, Olympic silver medallist Lihao had won the bronze medal when Rudrankksh struck gold in the 2022 World Championship in Cairo.
India also has a good chance in the 10m air and 25m sports pistol, with Esha Singh, Manu Bhaker (pic, right), Vijayveer Sidhu, and Shiva Narwal coming in with a pedigree of challenging the Chinese in major competitions over the years.
Since the turn of the century, China has swept the medals in four of the six Olympics, including the Tokyo Games, where it bagged 11 medals.
While India’s shooters perform well at the continental championships, their performances dip at the Olympics. If the Indians are on the mark in Hangzhou, they will have to raise their game when they come up against China and the USA at the Olympics next year.
India expects to follow up good show in archery
India is expected to do well in compound archery, especially after it bagged three golds in last month’s World Championships. However, compound archery will not be a part of the Olympic programme. In the recurve, India will likely be edged out by South Korea, China, and Japan. The Indian recurve archers have had lukewarm outings in World Cups, with six medals across 16 editions and a handful of medals in team events in 22 Asian Championships. But they have been unable to replicate a podium finish on the Olympic stage thus far. It’s hard to look past the South Koreans, who have dominated the sport at the Olympics for the last nine editions since 1988, with 26 gold medals out of a possible 37.
Indian wrestlers have a strong history of winning medals in global and continental competitions. Despite recent issues within the Wrestling Federation of India, the 18 Indian wrestlers are poised to compete for podium finishes in Hangzhou.
Recently, United World Wrestling (UWW), the world governing body for wrestling, suspended the WFI for not conducting its elections within the stipulated time.
Although India’s wrestlers will compete as neutrals at the upcoming World Championships, they can compete under the Indian flag at the Asian Games since it’s the IOA which has sent the entries. They will face tough competition from countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, Japan, and Iran.
The upcoming World Wrestling Championships in Serbia, beginning on September 16, will reveal how India performs against top global competitors, including the USA and Ukraine.
The uncertainty surrounding Russia’s participation in the Paris Games — a powerhouse with 56 medals in the last seven Olympics — could create opportunities for other countries to make their mark on the world stage.
Medal hopeful Aman Sehrawat beat world no. 1 Wanhao Zou (China) in the semifinal and Almaz Smanbekov (Uzbekistan) before clinching the Asian Championship title in the 57kg freestyle in April. Antim Panghal, who is a two-time U20 world champion, will get to test her mettle at the senior level.
Antim beat China’s Deng Li (world no. 13) and Uzbekistan’s Aktenge Keunimjaeva (20) in the Asian Championships, where the Indian won silver after losing to Japan’s Akari Fujinami (12) in the final.
Highly competitive table tennis
The table tennis competition at the Asian Games is highly competitive, especially in the men’s division. At the time of writing, eight of the top 10 rankings are made up of paddlers from China (5), Japan (1), Chinese Taipei (1), and South Korea (1).
In the women’s section, the top nine paddlers are from China, Japan, and South Korea. China’s top three men’s players, Fan Zhendong, Wang Chuqin, and Ma Long, are part of the Chinese men’s squad, while four of the top five-ranked women’s players have been drafted.
The rankings across categories read similarly, with the Chinese and South Koreans dominating the competition. The top three rankings in the medal table at the Olympics belong to China (60 medals), South Korea (18), and Japan (8).
India’s top-ranked paddler, Harmeet Desai (63), has been left out of singles, but the duo of Sharath Kamal and G. Sathiyan have shown in the past that experience counts in big-ticket events.
But India’s best chance of medalling at the Asiad is at team events like the previous edition. The women’s doubles team of Sutirtha Mukherjee and Ayhika Mukherjee beat the world no. 1 ranked Jeon Ji-hee and Shin Yubin of South Korea en route to the WTT Contender title in June.
Medals will be won daily at the Asian Games, and we should celebrate these achievements, which inspire hope as we approach the Olympic year.
However, it’s important to maintain a broader perspective on the competition and manage our expectations accordingly.
