There’s a great chance we’re going to see a Super Bowl we’ve seen before. At least from a historical perspective.
If the Patriots get to Super Bowl LX, we’re guaranteed of it. They’ve already played the Rams twice (winning both) and beat the Seahawks in their classic Super Bowl XLIX victory. Meanwhile, Seattle also played the Broncos a year prior to its galling last-minute loss to New England, winning 43–8 for the franchise’s only championship.
So, if you want a new game? Root for the Broncos and Rams. For that matchup to occur, though, both teams will need to win as underdogs. The last time both underdogs won on Championship Sunday was ironically in 2018, when New England and Los Angeles went on the road and beat the Chiefs and Saints, respectively.
It will be especially hard for Denver to hold up its end of the bargain, as backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham is getting the start after Bo Nix fractured his ankle in the overtime win against the Bills last weekend. For Stidham, this is his fifth career start and first postseason action across his six-year career.
And that’s where we start, with the Patriots going for their league-best 12th Super Bowl appearance, as Denver tries to pull off a major upset at home.
Patriots (14–3) at Broncos (14–3)
Spread: Patriots -4.5
Key matchup: Sean Payton vs. Mike Vrabel’s defense
Key stat: New England ranks 11th in EPA per rush against (-0.07)
Date, Time, TV: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Analyzing this game based on stats throughout the season is a waste of time. All that went out the proverbial window when news came down after Denver’s win on Saturday that Nix was lost for the year with a broken ankle.
With Nix sidelined, the Broncos are turning to Stidham, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2023. With the 29-year-old backup helming the offense, Denver’s first inclination might be to play very conservatively. The problem with that? New England will almost assuredly be loading the box to stop rookie back RJ Harvey. Doing so would go against the Patriots’ ethos as they ranked 24th in stacked-box percentage (19.7%), but the obvious move is to force Stidham into throwing often.
However, this is where Payton comes in. Payton worked as an assistant under Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells for three years with the Cowboys. Parcells was known as a gambler in big games, evidenced by running a fake punt in the 1990 NFC title game and a fake-punt-turned-sneak in Super Bowl XXI. Payton applied that lesson in Super Bowl XLIV as the Saints’ head coach, calling for a surprise onside kick to begin the second half in an eventual 31–17 win.
If the Broncos are going to score enough points to win on Sunday, Payton must be bold. Denver will need to create good field position and perhaps steal an easy score. Look for a trick play or two, whether it’s a special teams fake or offensive razzle-dazzle. With New England ranking 11th in EPA per rush against (-0.07), Payton can’t afford to pound Harvey into the line and face second- and third-and-long situations.
Expect Payton to be aggressive, especially in situations where Denver can flip the field.
Verdict: Patriots 23, Broncos 10
Rams (12–5) at Seahawks (14–3)
Spread: Seahawks -2.5
Key matchup: Los Angeles’s defense against Seattle’s quick-strike offense
Key stat: In Week 16, the Seahawks had nine explosive plays (eight offensively)
Date, Time, TV: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The last time these two teams got together, we saw the game of the season.
In Week 16, the Rams visited the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football and produced an instant classic with Seattle winning 38–37 in overtime. In that game, Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns while Puka Nacua had 12 catches for 225 yards and two scores. Los Angeles racked up 581 total yards but ultimately lost despite a 30–14 fourth-quarter lead, largely because it allowed explosive plays.
In the locker room on Sunday night after the Rams beat the Bears, defensive end Jared Verse told Sports Illustrated the biggest difference that must happen for Los Angeles to win this time around is taking away those chunk gains.
On that December night, the Seahawks had runs of 17 and 31 yards along with a 55-yard Kenneth Walker III touchdown. They also had completions of 46, 20, 27 and 21 yards with an additional 26-yard scoring strike to tight end AJ Barner. On special teams, returner Rashid Shaheed ran back a 58-yard punt return to jump-start the comeback.
When the two teams last matched up, the Rams didn’t have star receiver Davante Adams. This time, Adams is healthy. In short, the offense should be potent against facing the league’s top-ranked scoring defense, a defense Los Angeles averaged 29 points per game against this year.
However, it’s an open question whether Verse and his teammates can limit the big gains. If they do, the Rams have a great chance to reach their third Super Bowl under coach Sean McVay.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Championship Sunday Preview, Predictions: Seahawks, Patriots Enter as Favorites.
