One of the criticisms of the modern Champions Cup is that the exhilaration of the knockout stages is less widespread in the earlier rounds. Even the organisers seem to be keen to improve the ratio, with the heavyweight duo of La Rochelle and Leinster poised to collide on this season’s opening weekend. The two sides who have contested both the last two finals are also now being asked to set the early pace.
It is sending an unsubtle message to the rest of the field. What was once the Heineken Cup – now recast under the banner of Investec – becomes a less attractive proposition if just two or three sides are capable of winning it. France have also claimed the last three titles in a row, with La Rochelle’s back-to-back titles preceded by Toulouse’s victory over the same opponents.
Will it be hugely different this time? Given the burgeoning profile of the French Top 14, a cash-strapped Premiership and the awkward logistics currently facing South Africa’s top sides, it is hard to envisage an abrupt revolution. If there are fresh challengers out there beyond La Rochelle, Leinster and Toulouse, they are most likely sitting across the Channel in the shape of Racing 92, Toulon or Bordeaux.
Add the seasoned campaigners of Saracens and Munster to that sextet and a list of the eight teams most likely to contest the quarter-finals is probably complete before you have knocked the top off your breakfast egg. Without wishing to downplay the chances of the next rank of participants, many of whom are mighty hard to beat at home, the Champions Cup separates the wheat from the chaff as reliably as the knockout stages at a Rugby World Cup.
No one, certainly, wins this particular competition without possessing a heavy-duty pack, a serious defence or the ability to score tries against all comers. Since 2009 just six clubs have triumphed in 15 seasons. Of those, Exeter are currently rebuilding and Saracens are less formidable than they were prior to their salary cap travails.
This relatively shallow pool of contenders is another reason why there is once again talk of tweaking the competition’s format. What divine right does the Premiership have to keep supplying eight sides to a supposedly elite event when there are only 10 teams in their league. With Gloucester and Newcastle already languishing, it does not take a genius to guess the top eight finishers with six months of the domestic season still to run.
And is a 24-team tournament comprising four pools of six sides, two of whom will not actually meet each other, really fair? There is also every chance of the Stormers pitching up at Leicester on Sunday minus several leading players. In the old days a hard-earned “losing” bonus point for one team could have a significant ripple effect across the entire competition. Now, with just four pool games in total, even three defeats in four can be good enough to progress, as Ulster demonstrated last year after kicking off with a 39-0 away loss to Sale Sharks.
No wonder there have subsequently been mutterings about a potentially leaner 16-team tournament, one which enhances the quality and reduces the filler. As anyone who watched last season’s gripping finale at the Aviva Stadium can testify, club rugby more than matches the international version when the best sides are involved.
For now, though, this season could well be another mixed bag, with two rounds apiece either side of Christmas determining the last 16. The reality of the format is that anyone finishing outside the top eight qualifiers will find it mighty tough to progress as the away side in a one-leg round of 16. Last year nobody did so, although Exeter had to rely on try-count after a thrilling 33-33 draw with Montpellier.
Starting well is almost essential. You would still back Leinster, with the World Cup-winning Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber now in the blue corner, to come through regardless, having not lost a pool game on the field (as opposed to a Covid-related forfeit) since they went down 28-27 to Toulouse in 2018-19. Then again, even without the resting Grégory Alldritt, Ronan O’Gara’s defending champions will be in no mood to go easy on the Atlantic coast this Sunday, particularly with contrasting trips to Cape Town and Salford – talk about travel broadening the mind – to come.
Spare a thought, too, for Harlequins. One week they will be trotting out in the futuristic La Défense Arena in Paris to face a rampaging Racing 92, the next they will be welcoming the French champions Toulouse to the Stoop. Let’s just say their prospects of progress should be apparent well before Santa saddles up his reindeer. An injury-affected Saracens, similarly, have had easier starts than a trip to Pretoria to face the Bulls followed by the arrival of a nuggety Connacht in north London.
If England’s finest will need to up their game, the same applies to the Scots and the Welsh. Glasgow Warriors, riding high in the United Rugby Championship, should give Northampton a proper test on the opening night at Scotstoun but are they going to finish with a superior pool record to Toulon and Munster and claim a last 16 home draw? Cardiff must go away to both Toulouse and Racing but at least have Bath and Quins to get stuck into at home.
Hopefully, though, this will be a tournament whose attractions transcend mere national boundaries. Can England’s Henry Arundell carve up for Racing and Jack Willis do likewise for Toulouse? Nienaber at Leinster, Siya Kolisi at Racing … if the weather is half decent and post-World Cup fatigue is not too weighty an issue there are some intriguing possibilities.
Keep an eye out, too, in the Challenge Cup for Black Lion, the first Georgian side to feature in the competition. Gloucester may have their horizons broadened in Tbilisi this weekend. Ultimately, though, this season’s champion club side will come from a familiar shortlist. Expect another French winner to hoist the trophy aloft at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 25 May.
Five players to watch
Finn Russell (Bath)
It is 26 years since Bath last won the European Cup and they have only made it beyond the pool stages once since 2009. An improved campaign is seriously overdue and Russell has been hired as the potential catalyst. Alongside scrum-half Ben Spencer he has already turned Bath into a more alert and tactically interesting side and will be eager to make an instant Champions Cup impact when his new club host Ulster at the Rec this weekend.
Henry Arundell (Racing 92)
Still young but Arundell is already relishing his new life in Paris. And why not? A team full of galacticos, a licence to attack and the chance to play a slightly more stimulating brand of rugby than has tended to be the case when he lines up for England. With Bath keen to sign him for next season, do not be surprised if he rips it up in the early rounds, even if Steve Borthwick will also be examining his defensive solidity.
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Having withdrawn himself from England contention for the time being, the erstwhile national captain will be keener than ever to impress for Saracens. If ever there was a tricky place to start this new chapter of his career it is a summer night on the Highveld in Pretoria; at least his goal kicks should fly miles. Propel Sarries into the last eight and it will be the ultimate proof of his warrior mindset.
Handré Pollard (Leicester)
South Africa owed much to Pollard’s deadly boot at the World Cup and Leicester will need their ace marksman to be similarly accurate on French soil over the next few months. The Tigers have to travel to both Stade Français and La Rochelle and will also be up against a clutch of Pollard’s compatriots when the Stormers visit Welford Road this Sunday. If he continues to prosper, so will Leicester.
Blair Kinghorn (Toulouse)
One of the most interesting cross-border transfers in recent weeks has been Kinghorn’s switch from Edinburgh to Toulouse. The versatile full-back has long been a quality player but here is an ideal chance to measure himself alongside some of the best players in Europe on a weekly basis. If the 26-year-old responds well to his new surroundings, both his new club and Scotland will reap the benefits.