The history of college football has been a consistent fight over how the hell to crown a national champion. Through eras of different polls with mythical winners and myriad splits, to the bowl coalition to the BCS and now the College Football Playoff, the constant tinkering is reminiscent of an entity that can never quite make up its mind.
Now more than ever, college football is an entity caught between legitimate sporting competition and corporate largesse. At least the 10 FBS conference commissioners and Notre Dame have agreed formally to a new contract with ESPN beginning in 2026 to continue the CFP as the way the sport determines a champion for six years.
A new format was not decided Friday, but more a further codification of the new world order in college football. The Big Ten and SEC are more lucrative than the ACC and Big 12 which are more lucrative than the Group of 5. Estimates hint that the Power 2 will earn around 29% each of future Playoff revenue, with the ACC earning around 17%, the Big 12 around 15% with the remainder going to Notre Dame and the G5.
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The leagues that will make the most money would like to remind you that they have accounted for almost 75% of the four team Playoff’s all-time entrants, but that is only after factoring in the teams both leagues have absorbed in recent realignment moves resulting in the death of the modern Pac-12 and the relegation of the Big 12 and ACC. Future might makes current right where wallets are concerned.
There is no clear consensus on which 14-team format will win out of the multiple which will be considered and there’s a chance it actually remains at 12. If the commissioners do things the easy way, they could just expand the five (highest-ranked champions) plus seven (highest-ranked at-large teams) format for 2024 and 2025’s Playoffs to 5+9 for ’26 onward. However, that would be too easy and would indicate something a little closer to a true competition. But these negotiations are not being entered into with the mindset of simply creating a straight competition. This is a leverage play to secure further guaranteed revenue under the guise of a football tournament.
Reports indicate the Big Ten and SEC’s attempt to throw weight around even further and hold exclusivity over two first-round byes has been shelved. It’s a proposal on the brink of collapse due to its own ridiculousness, but it shows the mindset of the conferences that currently have the high ground. There might still be a format decided upon that, for instance, grants two automatic berths for the Big Ten and the SEC, one for the ACC, Big 12 and highest-ranked G5 school and seven at-larges.
Even if we got a new Playoff format tomorrow, make no mistake that it would not ensure any sort of long-term piece. There’s a so-called “look-in” clause in order for the deal to be reevaluated in 2028 based on how leagues perform to that point. Considering the current makeup of the leagues, expect the Big Ten and the SEC to be in position to try and assert more leverage again with further proposals for more guaranteed spots which translate to more guaranteed revenue and continues the cycle of postseason tinkering. As far as college football is concerned, that’s just history repeating itself.
