Futures odds aren’t an exact ranking of how teams are expected to perform because big bets can swing odds and cause teams to leap or drop a few spots. And other factors beyond actual ability can also change the order of odds. However, it isn’t exactly the worst ranking system. By and large, the better the team, the shorter the odds. And the worse a team is, the longer its odds.
With that in mind, I took a look at the recent USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll to cross-check the rankings with national championship odds at Tipico Sportsbook. And while the coaches and odds agree on the top four teams — Alabama (+190), Ohio State (+330), Georgia (+350) and Clemson (+1200), with a considerable gap between three and four — there were a few discrepancies after that may reflect who the coaches see as overrated and underrated.
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USC
Odds: t-5th (+2000)
Coaches Poll: 15th
If you were thinking about sprinkling something on USC to live up to massive hype and win a title under new coach Lincoln Riley, the coaches clearly think that’d be a mistake. They apparently aren’t as high on the Trojans, who have the best odds of all teams outside the top four.
This is especially notable for Pac-12 bettors, as the coaches ranked Utah and Oregon higher than USC despite their longer odds to win the conference.
Notre Dame
Odds: t-8th (+4000)
Coaches Poll: 5th
This isn’t the biggest discrepancy, as both the odds and poll have the Irish in the top 10. But it is notable that the coaches have them as the first team outside the top four instead of USC. CFB coaches clearly don’t think Notre Dame is as far removed from the squad that reached the CFP semis under Brian Kelly two seasons ago.
Wisconsin
Odds: t-11th (+6000)
Coaches Poll: 20th
A glance at the odds, and you’d think Wisconsin was a team that could potentially knock off Michigan and maybe even Ohio State in the Big Ten. And while it’s certainly not impossible, the coaches show a larger gap between these teams, even placing Michigan State ahead of the Badgers.
If the Spartans are in fact better, their +3000 odds to win the Big Ten are worth a look as the fourth-longest in the conference.
Texas
Odds: t-11th (+6000)
Coaches Poll: 18th
The odds and coaches don’t agree on much regarding Texas, namely the gap between the Longhorns and rival Oklahoma (+3000), the presumed top team in the Big 12. While the odds have four teams between them, the coaches have a margin of eight teams. And it would’ve been larger if not for the lone head-scratching first-place vote Texas received.
Penn State
Odds: t-15th (+8000)
Coaches Poll: NR
Penn State’s odds to win the Big Ten are tied for third at +1200 with Wisconsin. We’ve established coaches aren’t as high on the Badgers either, but they don’t even think the Nittany Lions are a top-25 team in the country. This may be a sign to fade them across the board.
Baylor
Odds: t-15th (+8000)
Coaches Poll: 10th
The only Big 12 team coaches ranked higher than Baylor was Oklahoma. Yet, Texas and Oklahoma State join the Sooners in having shorter odds than the Bears. And while coaches were also slightly higher on OK State than the odds, the bigger discrepancy was with Baylor, which only has the fourth-shortest odds to win the Big 12.
