Since late July, the United States has been increasingly signalling a move to strengthen its ties with Morocco, both economically and diplomatically. In 2020, the US backed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara in exchange for the country normalising relations with Israel. Now, Washington appears ready to support Morocco’s claims regarding the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.
RFI spoke to Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), about US moves to increase its influence in the region by supporting Morocco.
The US has supported Morocco during the Ceuta crisis, while Spain has faced a divided EU in the wake of the crisis and pressure to give up its two enclaves in North Africa, after the influx of 50,000 migrants over 24 hours into Ceuta last week.
Also last week, King Mohammed VI of Morocco announced that the new expressway connecting Tiznit, in the south of the country, and Dakhla, in Western Sahara, will be named the Donald J. Trump Highway.
"This is part of Morocco's strategy to woo the Trump administration and, above all, to ensure that the administration continues to support the Moroccan position during talks aimed at resolving the Western Sahara conflict," Fabiani told RFI.
"This is, in fact, the Kingdom's primary objective. Consequently, any strategy is deemed acceptable to maintain American support for Morocco's autonomy plans during these negotiations and ultimately achieve a resolution to the conflict that favours Morocco and its stance on the dispute."
Strategic support
US support on this issue was secured in 2020, however according to Fabiani, it is important to remember the Trump administration is not always reliable.
"Presidents often change their minds or shift their positions. Therefore, for Morocco, the strategy involves continuing to send signals and offer small concessions to the United States and specifically to the president, to ensure they maintain their support for the Moroccan position throughout these extremely delicate negotiations."
In late July, the US Ambassador to Morocco travelled to Laayoune, in the heart of Western Sahara, to sign an agreement awarding a US grant for the creation of a hydrogen and ammonia production facility.
"The Trump administration is deeply interested in 'deals' – specifically economic agreements that serve the interests of American companies. This is truly part of that administration's mindset, driven by a constant search for economic agreements that benefit the US. I would say that the construction of this plant is very much part of that American strategy, not only in the region but, in fact, across the globe," said Fabiani.
Two US lawmakers have in the meantime introduced a bill to examine designating the Polisario Front – the political and military group whose goal is self-rule for Western Sahara – as a foreign terrorist organisation.
ICG's view is that Morocco feels it is "now or never" – that, with the current US Republican majority, there is a genuine possibility of excluding the Polisario Front from future talks and efforts to resolve the conflict.
"Morocco is truly pursuing an almost 360-degree strategy to advance its interests within the Trump administration, as well as in other US democratic institutions," said Fabiani.
Iran and Algeria
The same two US lawmakers also want the US Congress to examine the alleged ties between the Polisario Front and Iran.
"There is an effort by Morocco and by Moroccan lobbies in the United States to leverage the strongly anti-Iranian narrative, fuelled, of course, by the current conflict between Iran and the US, to bolster Morocco's position on Western Sahara," Fabiani said.
This is a tactic that appeals to many US lawmakers and experts, he added, as they are constantly on the lookout for Iranian proxies or allies in the region. However, he insists, there is nothing linking the Polisario Front to Iran or to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"Morocco consistently attempts to link the conflicts Israel is involved in within the region to its own efforts against the Polisario Front and its stance toward Algeria," Fabiani continued
"It tries to draw a connection between conflicts that are, in fact, entirely separate and distinct. The only real link is the alliance between Morocco, the United States under Donald Trump and Israel. That is the true logic behind it all."
Spanish opposition
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez meanwhile recently travelled to Algiers, the main backer of the Polisario Front, where he expressed a desire to deepen ties with a strategic partner, notably in energy deals.
Some analysts have highlighted that this move may have angered Morocco's King Mohammed VI.
But according to Fabiani, the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Spain and Algeria poses no threat to Moroccan interests because Spain's position in favour of the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara has not changed and will not change – certainly not simply because Sánchez visited Algiers and met with President Tebboune.
This visit and the recent migration crisis in Ceuta should not be conflated, said Fabiani.
"In my view, that isn't actually the most credible hypothesis when trying to explain the reasons behind the crisis in Ceuta. The issue of sovereignty over Ceuta remains unresolved, as Morocco regards it as occupied territory."
He added: "At the same time, this could be an attempt by Morocco to appease certain far-right officials and intellectuals in Israel and the United States, acting as a form of rebuke toward Spain. The US views Spain as a state that continues to side with the Palestinians in Gaza and remained neutral during the conflict with Iran. Consequently, it sees Spain as an adversary, or at least as a state that cannot be counted on as an ally."
It has been speculated that Morocco was trying to send a dual message regarding Ceuta on the one hand, and to Israel and the US on the other, by facilitating a flow of migrants into Ceuta.
Fabiani, however, does not entirely agree. "I do not believe Morocco entirely manufactured this crisis. it was likely a more spontaneous event that Morocco facilitated and then leveraged to send a message to Spain."
Rabat is now pressing its claims to the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, and the US has sent a very clear message in that regard.
"Over the past few weeks, they have communicated quite openly that they no longer actually regard Ceuta and Melilla as Spanish territories. Instead, they effectively support Morocco's position regarding these two areas."
Consequently, from the Spanish perspective, the security guarantees previously provided by the US and NATO are no longer in place.
"This creates an unprecedented scenario regarding the status and thus the future of these two territories. I am not necessarily saying we are facing an imminent crisis, but in the coming years, the issue of Spanish sovereignty could, in certain respects, be reopened and renegotiated due to this American support for the Moroccan position," Fabiani concluded.
This article has been adapted from this interview by RFI's French service.
