At least 33,000 people in Manchester were not counted in the latest census, the council has claimed. According to the 2021 census, the city's population stood at 551,944 when the national data gathering exercise last took place.
However, Manchester council's own calculations come to 588,277. The town hall is now concerned that this 'significant undercount' could affect funding.
The government says population data is just one factor which influences how much money councils get. But the local authority is using its own forecasting to fill in the gaps identified in the census which is carried out every 10 years.
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The council suspects that the census missed build apartment blocks, hidden houses in multiple occupation (HMOs) and some student accommodation. The town hall has also said that some households may have been missed because the 2021 census was 'mostly digital' – although paper copies were available.
According to a council report, the residents who are most likely to be missing are aged 18 to 49, with a mix of young professionals and international students in the inner city, and young to middle-aged adults including students in HMOs, some with young children. Those missing from digitally excluded areas could be any age, but are more likely to be aged under 40 or over 65, the report said.
A higher-than-average proportion of those missing are likely to be Black, Asian and minority ethnic residents based on their age and the areas of the city that they are missing from, the economy scrutiny committee report claims. The council's claims correlate with the fall - or low rise - in 18 to 49-year-olds since the last census in 2021, according to the report which argues that this trend is 'clearly at odds with the city’s development and growth in the past decade'.
Manchester council is working with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which is responsible for carrying out the census, and a number of other local authorities on a new approach to population modelling. As part of this, the council is sharing details of its own forecasting model which is based on council tax registrations, GP lists, university data and the school census.
Manchester council leader Bev Craig said: "The census is an influential document when it comes to planning services and allocating national funding so we're making Manchester's case to ensure we are not disadvantaged by what we believe to be an undercount of our population. We are liaising with the Office for National Statistics, and with government departments, to share our own detailed population estimates and the data we have used to arrive at them, including which groups we believe are under-represented.
"We also work closely with local public services and other partners to make sure they understand our analysis so the right services and facilities can be provided for people in Manchester."
An ONS spokesperson said: "We have full confidence in our census estimates. We achieved a fantastic response rate of 97 pc - and over 88 pc in every local authority - and undertook the most comprehensive quality assurance ever, including involving local authorities for the first time.
"The census gives a brilliant snapshot at a moment in time. For some students and in some urban areas, there is evidence that the coronavirus pandemic did result in changes to where people lived. These changes might have been temporary for some and permanent for others.
"We recognise the population continues to change so, using a variety of data sources, we are providing more frequent, relevant, and timely statistics to allow us to understand population change in local areas. We are working closely with several local authorities on this work, including Manchester."
The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities says population data is just one factor which influences funding, alongside service needs, deprivation and local taxation. A spokesperson said: "The Census is one of many data sources that are used when considering local government funding. We will carefully consider both current and future releases by the ONS.
"As always, we will consult closely with local partners before implementing changes and finalising the local government funding settlement."
The government does not rely soley on the census for population estimates in its funding formula. The ONS will publish the latest administrative data which will estimate the population at local authority level in 2022 by the end of June.
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