The Prayut Chan-o-cha government is bracing for a major challenge after the opposition bloc filed a motion for a censure debate on Wednesday.
The bloc targets the prime minister and 10 other cabinet members, namely Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit, Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda, Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob, Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn, Social Development and Human Security Minister Chuti Krairiksh, Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin, Deputy Finance Minister Santi Promphat, and Deputy Interior Minister Niphon Bunyamanee.
The fact the government survived the political turbulence in the lead-up to the 2023 Budget Bill deliberations this month, when so many problems exploded at once -- particularly the threat from a breakaway faction led by Capt Thamanat Prompow, head of the newly established Setthakij Thai Party, and some micro parties -- means it stands a better chance of staying in power until its tenure ends early next year, and be able to contest the next general election.
However, the Thamanat faction's endeavour is just a bargaining game. As Gen Prayut agreed to hand out some conciliatory treats -- such as a four-seat quota on the panel scrutinising the 2023 Budget Bill -- the rebel faction decided to behave itself. This explains why the government successfully emerged from the Budget Bill showdown with 278 votes in favour versus 192 against.
This also shows that Capt Thamanat and some of the micro parties just want to maximise their political advantages, rather than targeting the government's downfall. Apparently, both can benefit from such a deal.
It's well known that by joining the budget scrutinising panel, the politicians can negotiate with state agencies and secure some budget for the electorates where their political bases are. In doing so, they can ensure support from canvassers and local voters for the next elections.
Some rebel politicians, known as "cobras", (politicians who act against their party's mandate) in Pheu Thai confessed the budget windfall was the main reason why they voted for the government in the debate. As they belong to the main opposition party, it's almost impossible these politicians could siphon off any budget for their electoral areas, unlike their colleagues in the government camp.
Politicians from both sides seem to have their own agendas for helping the Budget Bill sail through. And at this point, they can also reap some benefits from the government's survival. Any political accidents causing the government to stumble would interrupt the budget process, meaning they would have to go back to their political strongholds empty-handed.
This is the reason why some have adopted the "stay together" strategy that saw the government get a few extra votes for the Budget Bill, up from the initial 272 -- the number it secured in the last censure debate -- to 278, while the opposition votes dwindled.
The extra votes came from the Thamanat group, minor parties and "cobras" from the opposition. Two cobra politicians are reportedly set to leave Pheu Thai for the coalition partner Bhumjaithai, with another heading for veteran politician Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan's Thai Sang Thai Party.
With shrinking votes in their hands, the opposition will find it difficult, if not possible, to knock out the government in the forthcoming motion.
It would require at least 240 "no" votes, out of the total 477 in the Lower House, to unseat the government, but now the opposition can only secure 208. The real figure could go down to 192, especially if more breakaway cobras seek shelter in the government camp.
To secure a victory in the political game, Gen Prayut has made some compromises to micro parties' demands. One of these was delaying signing a contract for the controversial water pipeline project in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) in the eastern seaboard region, in addition to giving away quite a few political cakes, and in certain cases some "bananas", a metaphorical term for cash rewards in exchange for support or votes from those who would otherwise sit on the other side of political spectrum. In fact, this could be the last "feast" for minor politicians given the new election rules that favour big parties.
That said, there could be more cobras from Pheu Thai joining the government camp, probably the Bhumjaithai Party in the no-confidence debate. Now that the Gen Prayut and Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) era has entered its final chapter, these cobra politicians do not need to conceal their true colours any longer. Rather, they can show their loyalty to and solidarity with their new bosses. We will certainly see that in the forthcoming censure debate.
The opposition boasts that it already has 208 votes in its pocket, but the true number must be lower. Supposing the Thamanat faction, including the so-called Group of 16, were to join the opposition's no-confidence move, it still wouldn't be able to amass the 240 "no" votes required by the 2017 charter.
Even Sutin Klungsang, the chief opposition whip, appears resigned to the fact that the opposition cannot deliver a knockout blow to the government. So they will focus on the content of the debate, highlighting the government's failings and the detrimental effects from its policies and administration, such as rampant corruption, cronyism, and a lack of fiscal discipline that has buried the country in enormous debt. They will do this in the hope that such data makes voters sway their way in the next election.
