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Daily Record
Daily Record
Sport
Steven Mair

Celtic vs Rangers on a knife edge as supercomputer predicts derby showdown and a Gio van Bronckhorst title effect

A supercomputer prediction of the Scottish Premiership season has Rangers romping the top flight by more points than when Steven Gerrard was in charge.

But Celtic have been given a slight edge for the derby in just over a week's time, according to stats and modelling specialists FiveThirtyEight.

The data site assigns offensive and defensive ratings to every team to "project the result of a match between them in a variety of formats — such as a league match, a home-and-away tie or a cup final — as well as simulate whole seasons to arrive at the probability each team will win the league, qualify for the Champions League or be relegated to a lower division."

On November 7, four days before Gerrard's move to Aston Villa, he was still on course for winning a second successive league title in the eyes of the algorithm.

But the November 7 projection had Rangers squeaking out title number 56 by four points.

Gerrard was given a 61 per cent shot at the title with Ange Postecoglou's chances just over a third at 37 per cent.

In real time the gap was the same then as it is now - four points.

But despite losing their manager and seeing Celtic tool up for an all out title assault with five more players, the needle has moved even further in favour of the Ibrox club.

This week's forecast gives them a 69 per cent shot at the top flight crown and a six point winning margin, with the Parkhead side on 30 per cent.

FiveThirtyEight also do game-by-game projections and the February 2 showdown in Glasgow's east end is knife-edge stuff as far as the numbers are concerned.

It seems home advantage has Celtic slight favourites with a 39 per cent chance of victory.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst's men have been given a 34 per cent chance while there's a 26 per cent shot of the match ending in a draw.

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