As the Green Bay Packers transition to their new-look offense in 2023, how many top defenses will Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur have to face during the regular season?
It’s not only the quarterback position where the Packers are transitioning, with Love taking over as the starter, but the skill position groups have experienced an in-flux of young players who are going to dominate the playing time this season.
At tight end, Josiah Deguara, and his 600-plus career snaps, is the most experienced player at that position. At receiver, meanwhile, nine of the 10 players on the roster entered the NFL either in 2022 or 2023, and Romeo Doubs has seen the most playing time with 529 career snaps.
By not adding a veteran to either position group — or at least they haven’t yet — the Packers are willing to whether the inconsistencies that come with relying heavily on young players. The hope is that through that experience, the learning curve will shrink, and their impacts can be far greater sooner. Love, the receivers, and tight ends also have the opportunity to grow together as well, an important aspect when it comes to chemistry building.
Naturally, much of the attention has been fixated on these inexperienced position groups, but any success that Love is going to have begins and ends with the offensive line play. If the run game can’t get going and Green Bay becomes one-dimensional, or Love simply doesn’t have time in the pocket, not much else is going to matter.
On paper, the Packers have the ninth easiest strength of schedule in football this season, but specifically, how will this young offense stack up against opposing defenses? Using 2022 metrics, I’ve broken Green Bay’s schedule into five key defensive categories, highlighting the top and bottom defenses from their schedule within each.
Third down defenses
Top 10 from 2022:
2. Denver Broncos
5. New York Giants
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bottom 10 from 2022:
23. Carolina Panthers
24. New Orleans Saints
25. Las Vegas Raiders
30. Detroit Lions
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. Chicago Bears
If the Packers offense is going to find success on third downs, it all starts with how they perform on the early downs. If Green Bay can regularly give themselves manageable third down situations, it will open up the playbook for Matt LaFleur and keep the defenses guessing. On the flip side, if they end up in third and longs frequently, they are going to find themselves in predictable passing situations in which the defense can pin its ears back and really try to get after Love.
Red zone defense
Top 10 from 2022:
1. Los Angeles Rams
5. New Orleans Saints
8. Denver Broncos
10. New York Giants
Bottom 10 from 2022:
26. Detroit Lions
27. Chicago Bears
29. Kansas City Chiefs
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. Las Vegas Raiders
It goes without saying, but being able to capitalize inside the red zone with a touchdown is a must if an offense is going to be successful. The 2022 version of the Packers’ offense struggled with this, in large part because of an inconsistent passing game, which could apply to the 2023 team. In a condensed portion of the field, passing the ball is already more challenging. Opponents would load up the box in an effort to take away the run game and forced Green Bay to throw the ball. However, the passing game wasn’t consistent enough to be effective in predictable situations or to be relied upon that heavily – a big reason why the Packers stumbled in the red zone so often.
Quarterback pressures
Top 10 from 2022 (total pressures):
1 Kansas City Chiefs
8. New York Giants
Bottom 10 from 2022:
23. Las Vegas Raiders
24. Denver Broncos
26. Los Angeles Chargers
27. Los Angeles Rams
29. New Orleans Saints
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. Chicago Bears
If the offensive line isn’t holding up, not much else matters. Through the first nine games of the 2022 season, as the offensive line dealt with injuries and up-and-down play, we saw the effects that had on the Green Bay offense with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The quick passing game became was relied on heavily, and while there is a place for that in the game plan, it’s not effective when the defense is already crowding the line of scrimmage. In all likelihood, if a similar scenario plays out for Love, the (negative) effects will be magnified. Love and the Green Bay offense should be prepared for a heavy-dose of blitzing early on as well in an effort to get after and fluster Love. As offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said last week, until they put on tape that they can handle bltizers, teams are likely going to throw that at them.
Run defense
Top 10 from 2022 (yards per carry):
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bottom 10 from 2022:
23. Las Vegas Raiders
27. Chicago Bears
30. Detroit Lions
31. New York Giants
32. Los Angeles Chargers
The experience that the Packers have on the offensive side of the ball is along the offensive line and at the running back position, which is going to be relied upon heavily. As we potentially see a more pure version of the LaFleur offense, that may mean a more balanced run-pass split. Success on the ground will also keep this offense ahead of the sticks, giving LaFleur more flexibility as a play-caller. If the run game becomes bottled up, however, that will lead to the offense being in predictable passing situations, which is something teams always want to avoid, but that rings even more true with a young quarterback and group of pass catchers.
Turnovers
Top 10 from 2022:
9. Minnesota Vikings
Bottom 10 from 2022:
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
25. New York Giants
27. Atlanta Falcons
28. Carolina Panthers
31. New Orleans Saints
32. Las Vegas Raiders
As always, protecting the ball is at a premium, but for an offense that may struggle to move the ball or put up points (at least initially), losing the turnover battle in a given game feels like a knockout punch. As a whole, it remains to be seen whether or not this Packers team is good enough to overcome the opponent having an extra possession or two on offense. Love needs to take care of the football and take what the defense gives him, while the ball carriers and pass catchers need to protect the ball while running. LaFleur said it best last season; once a player puts on tape that they are susceptible to fumbles, they become a target for the defense. The same concept can be applied to the quarterback and throwing interceptions. If defenses know a wayward throw is coming at some point, they won’t be overly aggressive and will bide their time.
