It’s been roughly four months since we last saw Carlos Alcaraz play tennis after suffering a right wrist injury at the Barcelona Open in April 2026. As Alcaraz continues to recover, Kalshi’s tennis market opened on when he will return.
The market suggests Alcaraz will miss the U.S. Open but return soon afterward. Kalshi prices a U.S. Open return at 20%. Kalshi offers these event contracts in the form of dates, with prices showing the probability that he returns before a specific date. A $10 trade on a return before October 1 or November 1 currently pays $7.87.
