It’s been roughly four months since we last saw Carlos Alcaraz play tennis after suffering a right wrist injury at the Barcelona Open in April 2026. As Alcaraz continues to recover, Kalshi’s tennis market opened on when he will return.
The market suggests Alcaraz will miss the U.S. Open but return soon afterward. Kalshi prices a U.S. Open return at 20%. Kalshi offers these event contracts in the form of dates, with prices showing the probability that he returns before a specific date. A $10 trade on a return before October 1 or November 1 currently pays $7.87.
Carlos Alcaraz Next Match Played - Kalshi
- Before September 1, 2026 20%
- Before October1, 2026 56%
- Before November 1, 2026 56%
- Before November 15, 2026 81%
- Before December 15, 2026 85%
- Before January 20, 2027 97%
Advised to skip U.S. Open
While the world No. 2 ranked player might want to push his limits and play in the U.S. Open on August 25th, several notable figures have advised him to hold off. Former world No. 1 player Andy Roddick went on his podcast, “Andy Roddick’s Served,” and stated that he thinks the U.S. Open is in doubt.
"I just think, and no one's going to want to hear this, I think it's really hard to come back and have your first tournament be three out of five sets. I think the U.S. Open's in doubt,” Roddick said. "It's just when you're taking your time, and you've been so diligent about being safe and not being irresponsible, that risk comes back; all of a sudden he's in a five-setter first round of the U.S. Open. That would be counter to everything that he has done this far with taking his time and being patient with his injury."
Injury expert Stephen Smith told Tennis365 that the U.S. Open presents “every welfare risk at once” when advising Alcaraz not to play.
“I think the US Open compounds almost every welfare risk at once — extreme heat and humidity in New York, hardest surface in the game, best-of-five matches that can go four or five hours.”
Former player and analyst José Luis Clerc suggested he skip the U.S. Open and return during the Asian swing of the ATP schedule, which directly follows the U.S. Open.
"Don't play the US Open. You lack match playing experience, and those are five-set matches. Start in Asia to be at your peak; you need to be at your peak to win a tournament. So if you're listening to me, start in Asia."
The U.S. Open begins on August 25 from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The Asia portion of the ATP schedule begins with the Chengdu Open on September 23rd.
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