The Republicans’ failure to meet their widely predicted expectations has dominated the post-election national political conversation.
But it would be a mistake to overlook the successes that Democrats enjoyed in Tuesday’s midterm voting beyond blunting the GOP drive to restore congressional dominance.
Most importantly, they scored a parade of victories in statewide and legislative races across the nation’s industrial belt that solidified their political Blue Wall in the states that held the key to recent presidential victories by both parties.
They also prevented the election in key swing states of Republicans seeking jobs running elections who parroted former President Donald Trump’s unproven claims that he was robbed in 2020 and promised more restrictive voting rules.
What made many of those victories even sweeter to the Democrats — and especially the Biden White House — was the fact that most GOP losers had ties to and strong endorsements from Trump, who has indicated he plans to announce a 2024 presidential bid next Tuesday.
(Trump-backed candidates, many of them 2020 election deniers, had a more mixed record in congressional contests, winning key North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin Senate races, losing in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and still hoping to survive tight contests in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The final result may affect GOP enthusiasm for backing him in 2024.)
As for the Democrats, those state results will have an impact beyond their individual boundaries and likely bolster their 2024 candidate, whether Biden or someone else.
After all, it was Trump’s narrow capture of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that fueled his unexpected 2016 triumph. And it was Biden’s recapture of them four years later that was crucial to his 2020 victory.
The strong Democratic showing across the northern tier paralleled the GOP successes from the Southeast to the Southwest, highlighted by results confirming their domination in Florida and Texas. But those victories occurred in states that have become increasingly parts of the Republican base and are unlikely to be competitive in 2024, even Florida.
Specifically, Democrats emerged from Tuesday’s balloting with most big state governorships from New York to Minnesota, save those of normally Republican Indiana and increasingly GOP-dominated Ohio.
Embattled Democratic incumbents Gretchen Whitmer, Tim Walz and Tony Evers survived stiff GOP challenges in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, J.B. Pritzker won overwhelming re-election in Illinois, and Josh Shapiro and Kathy Hochul extended Democratic control over Pennsylvania and New York.
Not only did the Democrats sweep contests for other state offices in those six states, but they also scored significant legislative gains. In Michigan, they ousted Republicans from control of both houses and gained unified control of the governorship and legislature for the first time in 40 years.
In Pennsylvania, they apparently won the House for the first time in a dozen years, though the Senate stayed under Republican control. In Minnesota, they added Senate control to their House majority, giving them unified control for the first time in a decade.
And in Wisconsin, not only was Evers re-elected but the Democrats succeeded in preventing Republican legislators, who enjoy massive majorities largely through gerrymandering, from achieving veto-proof levels.
That means Evers will still be able to block GOP efforts to enact tightened voting rules, as Republicans have done in states they fully control like Texas and Florida. In the race for Wisconsin secretary of state, veteran Democratic incumbent Doug LaFollette had a slim lead over his GOP rival. But unlike in most states, the secretary of state doesn’t control voting rules in Wisconsin.
That is not the case in important presidential states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada, where secretaries of state from both parties played a crucial role in foiling Trump’s demands for recounts after certifying Biden’s victories in them.
One of the principal contests was in Arizona, where 2020 election denier Kari Lake is seeking the governorship against the Democratic secretary of state who upheld the 2020 vote, Katie Hobbs. Many votes remain uncounted there. But in the race for secretary of state, 2020 election denier Mark Finchem was trailing his Democratic rival.
In Georgia, Republican Brad Raffensperger, the recipient of that now-famous phone call from Trump demanding he overturn the 2020 result, won re-election. In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson decisively defeated a GOP opponent who challenged the 2020 result. In Minnesota, Secretary of State Steve Simon was elected over a Trumpy challenger. And in Pennsylvania, where the governor picks the secretary of state, Shapiro’s victory over Trump supporter Doug Mastriano ensured the choice of an official who shares his view of seeking to expand voting opportunities, rather than restrict them.
Still in doubt is the result in Nevada, where outgoing Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske also resisted GOP efforts to reverse the 2022 results. Trump supporter Jim Marchant, who formed a political committee of like-minded election deniers, was in a tight race with Democrat Francisco Aguilar in a contest that may not be decided for days.
Some Republicans who share Trump’s views were elected as secretaries of state in heavily Republican states like Alabama, Indiana and Wyoming, while Democratic-leaning states like Colorado and New Mexico rejected others.
But Tuesday’s results in most key states will likely strengthen the Democrats for 2024 and reduce the chances that a repetition of Trump’s anti-democratic 2020 effort would succeed.
