The third fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin is just days away.
The future Hall of Famers fought to a disputed draw at middleweight in 2017, and Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs) won a majority decision at the same weight the following year. They’ll finally meet a third time on pay-per-view this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, this time at super middleweight.
The biggest difference between the first two meetings – aside from the weight – is the perception that the 40-year-old Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs) is in decline, which leads many to believe this could be a one-sided fight in Alvarez’s favor.
At the same time, the star power of both men will undoubtedly fill the arena and attract millions of viewers worldwide.
Below are five questions – and answers – going into the trilogy.
Why is Canelo-GGG 3 taking place?
Because there’s a demand for it. Alvarez didn’t want a third fight with Golovkin, who he evidently doesn’t like after the Kazakhstani made comments he found objectionable. And, as Alvarez said in so many words, “That’s finished business.” Yet here we are. To be clear: This isn’t a huge fight because the perception that Triple-G in in decline. However, enough fans will buy into the event to make it more profitable than all but a few potential matchups. Golovkin is old but he still has a fan base that will buy into him, particularly for a fight against his arch rival. Also, DAZN, which is affiliated with both fighters, has pushed Alvarez to accept this matchup for years because of the money on the table. The fact it’s happening in 2022 isn’t ideal but Eddie Hearn and Co. undoubtedly are happy that two of their biggest stars will finally do battle one more time.
Is Golovkin too old to be competitive?
That’s difficult to say. He struggled to outpoint rugged Sergiy Derevyanchenko in defense of his IBF title in October 2019, which prompted many observers to suggest he was slipping. He rebounded to knock out Kamil Szeremeta in December 2020 and Ryota Murata this past April but his critics asserted that he still looked a step slower and was more vulnerable than he was only a few years earlier. Golovkin probably has declined to some degree but he remains a formidable all-around fighter, relying on experience and ring intelligence to compensate for any physical deterioration. Also, motivation also might’ve have been a problem for Triple-G in his recent fights. That won’t be a problem when he faces Alvarez. He knows that fight could be his last stand as a superstar. He will be as hungry as ever when he steps into the ring, which should serve him well when the opening bell rings.
How will the fighters adjust to 168 pounds?
Alvarez will be moving back down to 168 after bulking up for the Bivol fight, which took place at 175. Golovkin will be moving up a division after fighting his entire career at 160. Who has the edge? Probably Alvarez. He’s a natural 168-pounder now, having fought there for the first time in 2018. He shouldn’t much trouble whittling eight pounds off of his body, although that gets more difficult as a fighter ages. I expect him to be strong in this fight. Golovkin probably will feel stronger than ever at 168 because he no longer has to struggle to make 160, which must’ve been a challenge for him in recent years. There are potential problems, though. He’ll be taking punches from a natural 168-pounder for the first time, including bombs to his body. And he probably will have lost some punching power, which typical under these circumstances. All that said I doubt this will be a huge advantage for Alvarez.
Will Canelo's loss to Dmitry Bivol have affected his confidence?
Not likely. Alvarez had unwavering belief in himself long before he became star in the sport. It’s part of who he is. And we can look back on how he responded after another deflating setback. He was outclassed by Hall of Famer Floyd Mayweather in 2013 – I scored the fight a shutout, 120-108 – but he used the loss as a learning experience and rebounded to become a pound-for-pound stalwart. Of course, fighters aren’t supposed to get that kind of education at 31 years old, as Alvarez did in his one-sided loss to Bivol in May. However, you can bet he will have grown as a fighter. And remember: He took a significant risk by moving up in weight to face a superb, experienced boxer in Bivol. He isn’t afraid to challenge himself. Sometimes that results in disappointment. Alvarez was aware of that going into the fight.
Canelo vs. GGG 3 prediction: Who will win?
Alvarez. The Mexican star is about a 5-1 favorite, which is a particularly wide spread after two close fights between them. And the oddsmakers have it about right. One can’t ignore the fighters’ ages. An eight-year difference wasn’t a significant factor when they met in 2017 and 2018 but, because Golovkin is now in his 40s, it is important. I give the underdog a change to win the fight because of his familiarity with Alvarez, his experience, his power and the fact he’ll be as motivated as he has ever been. However, Alvarez is a great fighter who remains in his prime. And he, too, will have extra motivation because he wants to prove his loss to Bivol was an aberration. Indeed, Alvarez is too young, too good and too determined for an opponent who clearly isn’t what he used to be.
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