After eight decades of Liberal domination in Caulfield, could David Southwick be the latest high-profile casualty to fall to a teal challenger?
Mr Southwick, the Liberal deputy leader, is in the political battle of his life as he fights to hold off a challenge from Labor's Lior Harel and teal independent Nomi Kaltmann.
Only a handful of votes and preferences could decide the seat when voters go to the polls on November 26.
The ABC's election analyst Antony Green has put Mr Southwick's margin at just 0.04 per cent, following the redrawing of boundaries after the 2018 poll. The Victorian Electoral Commission gives Labor a lead of 0.2 per cent.
In front of several hundred voters at a town hall event last night, Mr Southwick told voters he was someone "who has always stood up for our community when it counts".
He urged voters to stick with him, and to boot out Daniel Andrews's government.
"We're in desperate need of a reset — we've had enough. We need confidence, opportunity and to get the state back to where it needs to be," Mr Southwick said, to loud cheers from the audience.
Nomi Kaltmann, a mother-of-three and former Labor member, has the support of the Climate 200 group and is running on an integrity platform.
Ms Kaltmann is trying to ride a similar wave to fellow teal independent Zoe Daniel, who claimed victory in the federal seat of Goldstein, which covers some of the same neighbourhoods as the Caufield state electorate.
Ms Kaltmann, 30, is hoping to win over voters who are dissatisfied with how Labor managed the pandemic and others who found the Opposition underwhelming.
"You want a strong crossbench. You've seen what a massive majority does and a hapless opposition. Don't trust it." she said.
While Mr Southwick may have had the most supporters in the Glen Eira town hall audience, Mr Harel insisted he was the best candidate to get results if the Andrews government was re-elected.
"You want to have someone who's got direct line of sight with the decision-makers," he said.
Jewish voters could hold the key
The electorate, which takes in suburbs including Caulfield, Elsternwick, Balaclava and Ripponlea, is home to Australia's largest Jewish population. Local synagogues and Jewish bakeries famous for their cakes and breads are synonymous with the area.
According to the ABS, about 29 per cent of the electorate identifies as Jewish. It is a tight-knit community, which has largely stayed in the area after large waves of post-war migration.
All six of the candidates are Jewish, something that has generated extra interest among the locals for the election contest.
On Thursday night, topics like cost-of-living and healthcare did not take top billing at the town hall event, co-hosted by the Australian Jewish News, Zionism Victoria and other Jewish advocacy groups.
Instead, concerns about rising anti-Semitism and the Australian government's relationship with Israel were the audience's primary concerns. Many in the room were angry with federal Labor for reversing the decision to recognise West Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
Mr Harel said he was "very disappointed" with his own party's position.
"I think that a sovereign state has the right to choose its own capital," he said.
Abortion raised in election debate
There were gasps in the room when Ms Kaltmann suggested the Liberal Party could "bring back the potential criminalisation of abortion".
Ms Kaltmann's comments, made during debate around the Liberals' proposed changes to the Equal Opportunities Act, were labelled as "absolute scaremongering" by Mr Southwick.
"That is not the position of our party. That is not the position of Matthew Guy," Mr Southwick said.
Mr Guy's proposal would see faith-based schools given protection to hire staff who share the same religious values.
Mr Southwick said the laws would not adversely affect the LGBTIQ+ community, but Ms Kaltmann disagreed.
She accused "Christian Mormons and Pentecostals" of bringing a "very scary fringe right position" to the Liberal Party, which was not in line with the values of Caulfield residents.
Rachel Iampolski, the Greens candidate, said it was "embarrassing" that the Liberals were looking to change the laws.
"I understand why so many young people are turned off politics if this is the state of it," she said.
Outside the event, Caulfield's Liberal Democrat candidate Michael Abelman was handing out his own campaign flyers, after being left off the panel by the organisers.
"I had a bit of a hissy-fit for a minute on the inside. It was an opportunity lost," Mr Abelman said.
"There's no candidate advocating for lower taxes and smaller government."
