Although the Australian Electoral Commission is still counting postal votes, it is looking likely that independent Senate candidate for the ACT David Pocock will unseat Liberal senator Zed Seselja.
Senator Seselja is yet to concede, but the Canberra Liberals are already taking stock of the loss at the federal level and its implications for their branch going forward.
So, is the result in the ACT surprising, and what might the impact be on the Canberra Liberals' hopes for the next territory election?
Liberal result should 'set in train a heart-search'
Gary Humphries, who served as a Liberal senator for the ACT from 2003 to 2013, said the impending loss of the second Senate seat in the territory was a huge blow to his party locally.
"One of the very first ACT senators was the Liberal senator in 1975, John Knight — so to slip from that position to losing the seat is just unbelievably disappointing.
"It should set in train a real heart-search about where we're going and how we managed to lose a seat which we only needed one-in-three votes in the territory to retain."
But Mr Humphries thinks that search should have started when Alistair Coe conceded defeat to Andrew Barr in the last local territory poll.
"The people of the ACT said in 2020 at the ACT election that they don't like an ultra-conservative brand of liberalism," Mr Humphries said.
"And they repeated that message with even more force last weekend."
Canberra Liberals leader insists party has 'united approach'
Canberra Liberals leader Elizabeth Lee is considered more progressive than both her predecessor and Senator Seselja.
But she too thinks the possibility of Senator Seselja's seat going to Mr Pocock, and the Coalition's loss of federal government, will have a huge impact.
"But what I want to do is focus on what we have been doing at the assembly and that is to continue to advocate for Canberrans on the issues at the local level that really impact them."
Mr Pocock campaigned heavily on a need to do more about climate change as well as territory rights and changing federal laws that prevent the ACT Legislative Assembly from legislating on a range of issues, including voluntary assisted dying.
Senator Seselja had said he would not support overturning the bill that prevents territories from legislating for what he described as "assisted suicide".
But Ms Lee argues the party's position is different at the Legislative Assembly level, on territory rights as well as on a range of other issues.
"We have a very united approach when it comes to territory rights, we have a tripartisan agreement with Labor and the Greens in relation to climate action [and] I introduced legislation that was nation-leading to outlaw stealthing," she said.
"If the territory is given the right to debate and legislate on this issue, [then] the issue of voluntary assisted dying will be a conscience vote for the Canberra Liberals."
Mr Humphries, who is also a former ACT chief minister, thinks there could be a silver lining for the Canberra Liberals in Senator Seselja potentially losing his seat.
"The position of Senator Seselja was so dominant in the ACT that it often overshadowed the views of the Canberra Liberals in the assembly," Mr Humphries said.
Senate loss may not end conservatism in Canberra Liberals, analyst says
Australian National University School of Politics Emeritus Professor John Warhurst was also surprised by the swell of support for Mr Pocock at the polls.
"It's a huge change, and while for the last few elections it's been quite a contest, it still comes as a surprise," he said.
"I think it's harder for the Liberal Party in the ACT to do well when there's a Liberal and a Coalition government at a national level.
"It opens up a bit more space for the local Liberal party."
But Professor Warhurst is not so sure the Liberals losing their ACT Senate seat will prompt a rush toward the centre of the political spectrum.
He said much would depend on whether Senator Seselja did indeed lose his seat and if he decided to contest it again at the next federal election.
"If he decides to have another crack at the seat, we can expect a very intense three years with the Liberal Party in the ACT throwing everything at the incoming Senator David Pocock and holding him very much to account for his performance."
If Mr Pocock is elected to the Senate, Professor Warhurst said he could be difficult for the major parties to dislodge.
"This trend for about a third of the electorate to support minor parties and independents has been coming for some time," he said.
"The independents that have been elected over the last two or three elections — beginning with Cathy McGowan in Indi — they've managed to increase their vote at subsequent elections.
"There's tremendous value in incumbency and once you're into a seat, if you perform well and play your cards right, then it's even harder for the opposition to defeat you at the next election.
"I expect that to be the case both in the ACT and nationally."
