Abetted by an unseasonably hot spring, hundreds of wildfires have ignited across the Canadian province of Alberta, choking the skies with smoke and forcing the evacuation of about 40,000 people. The blazes in Canada’s top energy-producing province have knocked out a fifth of the nation’s natural gas output at times and are expected to put a dent in economic growth numbers for the month of May.
Alberta’s tar sands, whose 3.25 million barrels of daily oil output make Canada the world’s fourth-largest crude producer, have so far been spared, but officials are warning that conditions are ripe for fires to spring up anywhere, anytime. That possibility has companies, investors and the residents of the oil sands’ unofficial capital of Fort McMurray—which almost burned to the ground seven years ago—on high alert.
With the infernos now raging into their third week with no end in sight, the ultimate economic impact is difficult to predict. The fires “continue to inflict significant damage,” according to Rob Roach, deputy chief economist at ATB Financial. Roach’s Edmonton-based company estimates the fires could shave 0.1% to 0.3% off Canada’s real gross domestic product for May, depending on how much energy production is shut down and for how long.
The outages have contributed to Canadian energy producers’ stocks lagging the broader Toronto Stock Exchange index in May. Chris MacCulloch, an oil analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets, estimated in a May 18 note that more than 2 billion cubic feet per day of gas has been curtailed. His message to investors: “Pray for rain.”
The nightmare scenario is that the blazes ravaging western Alberta spread east to the oil sands. Almost 2.7 million barrels of Alberta’s daily oil-sands production—just shy of Kuwait’s output last year—are now in zones with “very high” or “extreme” wildfire danger, consultant Rystad Energy estimates.
That’s a danger that Jody Butz, fire chief for the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo encompassing Fort McMurray and the Athabasca oil sands, has been monitoring for weeks. Butz’s department asked provincial officials to ban campfires and recreational vehicles from wild areas starting in late April, unusually early in the province’s wildfire season, and they obliged.
At Fort McMurray, which has a population of about 70,000, preparations for another onslaught have been underway since a 2016 blaze that was Canada’s costliest natural disaster, with C$3.7 billion ($2.7 billion) in insured losses.
The city helped homeowners reduce risks by removing trees close to dwellings. The fire department switched to smaller trucks that can connect and disconnect from hydrants faster, so squads can more easily chase after floating embers. Its staff also built closer relationships with the provincial department that fights fires in the forests around Fort McMurray. Now any blaze nearby is met with an immediate response from both, and the jurisdictional and financial details are worked out later, according to Butz.
Officials are also counting on cooperation from a population with vivid memories of the 2016 catastrophe. Butz says Fort McMurray residents have been quick to comply with this year’s fire-preventing restrictions and are even holding one another accountable on social media.
“We live in the middle of the boreal forest, and wildfire is our No. 1 hazard, so let’s be prepared. That’s a common message I see from people,” he says.
No amount of preparation may be enough for what’s shaping up to be a record year for fires. Alberta is only one-third of the way into its wildfire season that typically stretches from March through October, but already almost eight times as many hectares of land have burned than in all of the 2022 season. With more than 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) up in smoke as of May 23, the province is on pace to surpass 1981’s record of 1.36 million hectares.
Wildfires are one of the most noticeable signs of climate change, with extreme heat and protracted droughts creating ideal conditions for infernos. Unseasonably warm weather over the past month undoubtedly contributed to an earlier-than-normal start to “serious” fire activity, says Christie Tucker, a spokeswoman for Alberta Wildfire.
“What we don’t see is the kind of hot, dry conditions that we saw at the end of April and early May,” Tucker says. “That was really unusual.”
And the province is just now entering the most active period for blazes, when almost all the snow has melted but the vegetation is still brown and dry, providing ready kindling, Tucker says.
Fort McMurray resident John Hickey, who works as a mechanic repairing light-duty vehicles used in the oil sands, says smoke from the fires has been a topic in recent safety briefings at his shop. Crew leaders are telling workers to limit their exposure and take breaks if they’re having breathing problems. They’re also focusing on prevention, reminding staff not to smoke in certain areas of the job site, he says.
Hickey, whose house burned to the ground in 2016, says he’d fill his truck’s gas tank immediately if officials raised alerts. The rest of the town would take warnings seriously, too, he says.
“If people heard things were getting serious, or to be prepared to evacuate, people would get ready,” he says.Read next: Wildfire’s Toxic Legacy Has Children Gasping for Air Years Later
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