Late-season success doesn’t always carry over to the following year. Take Devin Singletary, the RB3 from Weeks 13-18 in 2021. He followed that up with an RB23 finish in 2022. But then consider Amon-Ra St. Brown, the WR2 during those same weeks in 2021. He delivered last season with a WR6 campaign.
I wrote about both Singletary and St. Brown around this time last year as players who had gained some momentum heading into the offseason. There’s a multitude of factors that can determine whether a player can build on that when the next season comes around.
I’ve examined three players who outperformed their season-long finishes during the home stretch of the 2022 season. Was that success an outlier or an indicator of what’s in store in 2023? Let’s take a look.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
Position Rank Weeks 13-18: RB10
Season-Long Position Rank: RB19
Conner’s stats during these weeks were actually even better than his standing suggests. Arizona was on bye in Week 13 and Conner did not play in Week 18, so he finished 10th in total points over that six-week span despite appearing in just four games. He averaged the third-most points among running backs (20.1).
The early part of Conner’s season was marred by injury, inefficiency and inconsistent volume. But he came on in a big way down the stretch, which coincided with a seven-game losing streak and quarterback Kyler Murray’s season-ending injury in Week 14.
Conner had three top-15 finishes in his first nine games and he was among the top-15 scorers at his position in each of his final four. He recorded at least 15 carries and three receptions in each appearance from Weeks 14-17. Conner had at least 63 yards rushing and 28 yards receiving in all four contests, topped 100 scrimmage yards three times and scored three of his eight total touchdowns during this segment of the season.
The Cardinals didn’t make any offseason moves that would threaten Conner’s standing as a potential three-down back and he shouldn’t have to worry about Keaontay Ingram or Corey Clement taking away touches. Conner was on the field for 71% of Arizona’s snaps in 2022, the second-highest rate of his career. He’s finished as a top-20 back each of the last two seasons and he has a clear pathway to 200-plus carries in addition to his receiving work, which should be plentiful with Colt McCoy under center until Murray’s return.
Don’t bank on top-10 production from Conner in one of the league’s worst offenses, but he could prove to be a value in drafts as the RB26 based on volume alone.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
Position Rank Weeks 13-18: WR6
Season-Long Position Rank: WR22
Jeudy began the best stretch of his career in Week 13 last season. Courtland Sutton went down with a hamstring injury that same game and missed the next two weeks, which helped clear the way for the third-year receiver’s breakout. During this run, Jeudy established a solid floor of 10.5 points and he peaked with a pair of top-three finishes in the fantasy regular-season finale (33.3 points in Week 14) and championship week (24.3 points Week 18).
The bulk of Jeudy’s 2022 production occurred during these six weeks: He caught 37 of 45 targets for 523 yards and scored three touchdowns. In his other nine games, Jeudy hauled in 30 of 55 targets for 449 yards and another three scores. He had as many top-24 finishes (four) betweens Week 13 and 18 as he did the rest of the season. Jeudy also set single-game career-highs in catches (eight) and receiving touchdowns (three) in Week 14 and receiving yards (154) in Week 18.
Jeudy’s numbers didn’t tail off when Russell Wilson was sidelined, either. He accounted for 76 of Brett Rypien’s 197 passing yards in a Week 15 win.
Denver’s offseason moves were a mixed bag for Jeudy’s prospects. The arrival of coach Sean Payton is undoubtedly a positive. However, Sutton has not been traded despite rumors he could be shipped off this summer. The Broncos also drafted receiver Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round, added a pass-catching back in Samaje Perine and will welcome back receiver Tim Patrick, who tore his ACL last August.
Payton said that Jeudy, a former first-round pick, will “certainly will be a big part of what we do.” Perhaps the connection he established with Wilson late last season will carry over into 2023. It will likely have to if he’s going to deliver on his WR24 average draft position.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans
Position Rank Weeks 13-18: TE7
Season-Long Position Rank: TE25
Okonkwo emerged in the second half of his rookie season as a solid streaming option with demonstrable upside. He turned in multiple top-10 finishes while catching passes from multiple quarterbacks in a run-heavy offense. Okonkwo’s biggest dud during this stretch was a Week 16 Malik Willis start — the fellow first-year pro finished with 99 passing yards.
In the first 11 games of Okonkwo’s career, he had more than one reception twice. Over the following six he had three or more catches five times. Okonkwo led all tight ends in yards per catch (14.1) last season and he ripped off a big play (20-plus yards) on better than 20% of his receptions.
From Week 13 on, Okonkwo recorded three top-eight finishes and scored 10 or more points four times. He had one top-10 week before then. Unlike many other tight ends, Okonkwo wasn’t overly reliant on touchdowns. He found the end zone three times last year (twice during this specified stretch).
Okonkwo is Tennessee’s top returning pass-catcher following the departure of Robert Woods. Though receivers Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins will certainly out-target him, Okonkwo has established himself as a yards-after-catch threat for Ryan Tannehill (or Will Levis) and he will certainly be more involved than he was early on last season.
Despite his impressive athletic profile and late-season run, Okonkwo’s TE15 average draft position is still very modest. With some touchdown luck and increased opportunity, he can easily outperform that price.
