In a February 4, 2025, Barchart article, I asked if U.S. long-term interest rates had peaked. I concluded:
The bond market is at a critical level, remains in a bearish trend, and is not far from a challenge of the October 2023 low. Bullish and bearish factors continue to pull the long bond futures and TLT ETF in opposite directions in February 2025. They will eventually break higher or lower, but the path of least resistance for a potential up or downside breakout is not clear in the current environment. We could see lots of volatility in the bond market over the coming months as we find out if U.S. interest rates have peaked or if they have further upside.
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