The Andhra Pradesh political dream team of 2014 — which fell apart with disastrous consequences for all three partners in 2019 — is back together again. Despite the BJP’s lack of enthusiasm for the partnership this time round, the TDP’s fear of a backlash from an electorate unhappy with the BJP-led Union government, and the unknown strength of the YSR Congress party, the trio is hoping to recreate its electoral magic of a decade ago.
In 2014, the alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Telugu Desam Party — with outside support from Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party, which did not join the electoral fray — won the favour of the electorate, catapulting the TDP’s N. Chandrababu Naidu to the top, making him the first Chief Minister of the residual State of Andhra Pradesh, after the bifurcation of the State.
Also read: BJP, TDP, Jana Sena join hands to fight Lok Sabha, Andhra Pradesh Assembly polls
Just before the 2019 elections, the TDP severed ties with the BJP, saying that the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre had failed to give Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh. Mr. Nadu’s party lost miserably to the YSR Congress party led by Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, managing to win just 23 of the 175 seats in the State Assembly. The JSP had also cut its ties with both the BJP and the TDP and had gone solo in the polls; it won just one seat, with Mr. Kalyan himself losing both the constituencies he had contested. The BJP failed to win any seats in the State.
Now, six years after that debacle, the combination is back in the reckoning.
Reluctant partners
Though Mr. Kalyan had announced his alliance with the TDP in September last year, when Mr. Naidu was in judicial custody related to his alleged involvement in the A.P. Skill Development scam, it took some time for the BJP to join in, despite the BJP and JSP already being in a pre-poll alliance as well.
Also read: To join or not to? BJP’s dilemma on tie-up with TDP-JSP for Andhra Pradesh elections continues
The formal alliance has been crafted after a series of meetings with the BJP’s top brass, earlier this year and on March 7 and 8; however, the modalities of seat-sharing and other details are yet to be made public.
As per sources, though the BJP was not very keen to tie-up with TDP this time, it was the Mr. Kalyan’s efforts that apparently paved the way for the alliance. The JSP chief has been harping on the need for the alliance, to avoid the splitting of anti-YSRCP votes. Moreover, for the BJP, some tie-up was necessary to keep a check on the resurgent Congress, which is now being led by Y.S. Sharmila in the State.
However, questions remain on whether the alliance will be able to repeat its 2014 performance and whether it can stop the juggernaut of Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Risk of backlash
Many political pundits say that the TDP and JSP may face a backlash for tying up with the BJP, as there is a lot of resentment against the BJP in the State. The people of Andhra Pradesh are upset with the BJP-led Union government for privatising the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant, failing to operationalise the sanctioned railway zone, and refusing to sanction Special Category Status for the State, among other grievances.
In this scenario, the State’s voters — who understand the potential benefits for development and funding if the State’s rulers are allied to the ruling party at the Centre — are looking for some specific assurances and answers before they support the BJP’s alliance. The BJP’s 2014 vote share of 2.2% shrunk to just 0.84% in 2019, political scientists note.
They say that the alliance may work if the BJP comes out with some solid assurances for development, along the lines of Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s promise, just before the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls, that the Nagarnar steel plant, owned by the National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), would not be privatised. The decision contributed to the BJP’s success in throwing the Congress out of power in the State.
‘Free and fair election’
According to some senior leaders in the TDP, the biggest benefit of the alliance is the assurance it provides for a free and fair election in the State.
“We are confident that Jagan Reddy will use all his might to use the State’s official machinery, including the police force, to make the election work in his favour. They were successful in 2019, as we had fallen out of favour with the BJP. But now, once the alliance [with the BJP] is sealed, it will be difficult for [Mr. Reddy] or his party leaders to turn the electioneering in their favour,” a senior TDP leader said.
TDP leaders hope that, since the BJP is with them, the election machinery will be under the control of the Election Commissioner of India and adequate Central forces will be present to run the show.
