Opportunity won’t be a problem for either Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft as rookie tight ends for the Green Bay Packers, but producing big numbers in the passing game is a rare sight for any highly drafted tight end in Year 1.
According to Stathead, 264 tight ends have been drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Of the 264, only 27 produced 500 or more receiving yards as a rookie. Only 21 caught five or more touchdowns. And only 11 hit both thresholds.
Even in today’s pass-heavy game, tight ends have struggled to make an instant impact. Since 2000, only 10 tight ends have produced 500 or more receiving yards, including just four over the last 10 seasons.
The Packers made Musgrave a second-round pick. The highwater mark for receiving yards by a second-round tight end as a rookie in the last 30 years? Only 684 yards.
The Packers made Kraft a third-round pick. The highwater mark for receiving yards by a third-round tight end as a rookie in the last 30 years? Only 575 yards.
There are some rare exceptions. Kyle Pitts produced 1,026 receiving yards as a rookie in 2021, becoming just the second rookie tight end to pass 1,000 yards, but he was also the fourth overall pick. Rob Gronkowski caught 10 touchdown passes as a rookie in 2010, but he’s arguably the greatest tight end of all-time.
Three players jump off the stat sheet when it comes to finding potential best-case scenarios for Musgrave or Kraft.
Hunter Henry, the 35th overall pick in 2016, produced 478 receiving yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie.
Pat Freiermuth, the 55th overall pick in 2021, produced 497 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie.
Evan Engram, the 23rd overall pick in 2017, produced 722 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie.
All three combined athleticism and early opportunity to create productive rookie seasons. Musgrave and Kraft are both elite athletes with little standing in their way of playing time in 2023.
Two others worth considering, given the comparisons between both players and Musgrave and Kraft: Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Ertz caught 36 passes for 469 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie in 2013. Goedert caught 33 passes for 334 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. Solid production, but nothing extraordinary.
Given the historical difficulty, it’s unlikely Musgrave or Kraft will become game-breaking players as rookies. The demands of the position are too much on young players, so setting the right expectations — especially in terms of final statistical production — is important.
Still, the Packers’ rookie pair can still be a force for good in the passing game. Musgrave is one of the most athletic (and fast) tight ends to enter the NFL in some time and was on the verge of a monster 2022 season before injury. Kraft isn’t as fast as Musgrave but is similarly athletic, and he was a menacing receiver for South Dakota State.
Just don’t expect 80 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Anything close to 500 receiving yards and five touchdowns would be excellent for either player, and anything more would qualify as rare production for the tight end position.
