Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has trodden a fine line between the west, Russia and China for more than two decades. Turkey has profited from helping both sides in Russia’s war against Ukraine, extended its military reach and influence in Syria, Libya, the south Caucasus, the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf, spread its soft power in Africa, central Asia and the western Balkans, and built a substantial national defence industry.
When international relations experts assess this, they often fall back on the term “balancing act”. Turkish analysts prefer to speak of a quest for “strategic autonomy” – the ability to defend the country’s interests against all threats without being dependent on any outside power.
