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The Hindu
The Hindu
Comment
Uma Purushothaman

Can Donbas republics work as a buffer zone?

EXPLAINER

The story so far: Three regions of the erstwhile Commonwealth of Independent States, Abkhazia in northwestern Georgia, Transnistria, a breakaway state in Moldova, and South Ossetia, also in Georgia, are territories with internal but not external sovereignty. One of the solutions to settle the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is for the Donbas republics of Donestk and Luhansk to follow this model and exist as de facto states. 

What are the three para states?

“Places that do not exist” is how the BBC has described territories like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. Variously described as de facto or para states, these are territories which have internal but not external sovereignty, i.e., they are not de jure states and are not recognised by the global community. However, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognised by Russia and some of its allies like Syria, Nauru, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Transnistria, however, is not recognised as independent even by Russia. But these three regions recognise each other and have their own governments, parliaments, armed forces, constitutions, flags, anthems, etc.

How did these de facto states come about?

While South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from their parent state, Georgia, Transnistria broke away from Moldova. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia had substantial autonomy during the Soviet period. Tensions broke out as Georgian nationalism rose in the late 1980s.

During perestroika, Abkhazia unilaterally declared independence, leading to a war with Georgia in 1992-1993, which it won, allegedly with Russian support. In March 1993, the Abkhazian parliament appealed to be included in the Russian Federation, but to no avail. In 1996, Russia and most of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members placed embargoes on it for unilaterally seceding from Georgia. However, under Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow did not implement the embargo and withdrew from it in 2008 when it recognised Abkhazia as an independent state. During the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 over South Ossetia, Abkhazia successfully attacked the last territories of Abkhazia that were still under Georgian control and took them. Russia now has an embassy in Sukhumi, the capital. There are Russian troops in Abkhazia as per a September 2009 military cooperation agreement, and Moscow provides substantial financial assistance.

However, Abkhazia does not completely abide by Russia’s wishes on policy. For instance, it does not allow Russians to buy property for fear of being overwhelmed by Russians. In 2008, Russia had signed a bilateral agreement “On Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Support”. However, when Russia wanted a new treaty to promote greater cooperation, Abkhazia insisted on jointly drafting it to preserve its sovereignty and ensuring that the word “integration” was dropped from the treaty. Though Abkhazia needs Russia to survive, there is not much love for Russia. As Russian expert Sergei Markedonov says, Abkhazia cooperates with Russia because of “a recognised necessity more than from a romantic ideal”.

South Ossetians declared independence from Georgia in 1991. This resulted in a war, leading to a ceasefire brokered by Russia, leaving South Ossetia divided. Following the Russia-Georgia war in 2008, the rest of the territory was captured, and in 2008 Russia recognised South Ossetia's independence. South Ossetia is more pro-Russian than Abkhazia. It planned a referendum favouring integration with Russia in 2016, but this did not take place because of Russian opposition. Unlike the Abkhazians who insisted on deleting the word “integration” in their agreement with Russia, the South Ossetian version retained this word. South Ossetia is much more integrated with Russian state structures than Abkhazia is. It also receives a lot of subsidies from Russia.

Often described as a “remnant of the Soviet Union”, Transnistria declared independence like Moldova did soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union. When Moldovan troops attempted to take over the territory in 1990-1992, Transnistria was able to resist them because of Russian soldiers based in Transnistria. These troops have now been largely withdrawn following an agreement between Russia and Moldova and what remains is a peacekeeping force of Moldovan, Transnistrian, and Russian soldiers. In a referendum held in 2006, over 97% of Transnistrians voted for future integration with Russia and after the annexation of Crimea, the government asked if it could to be absorbed into Russia. Russia has not welcomed this as it perhaps prefers to retain these territories as buffer zones.

What are Russia’s relations with them?

All three territories have Russia as their patron state and cannot survive without economic, political, and military support from Moscow. They are seen as client states of Russia though Abkhazia has shown an independent streak at times. South Ossetia and Trinistria are more pro-Russian than Abkhazia. Their economies and banking systems are all linked to Russia. Most people speak Russian, at least as a second language. They have Russian passports and enjoy social security benefits from Russia like pensions. So, obviously, they fall within Russia’s sphere of influence.

Can they be a model for the Donbass Republics?

One of the solutions to settle the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is for the Donbass republics to follow the model of these de facto states. They would get recognition from Russia, get a security guarantor and exist as de facto states. Russia would also benefit from having friendly territories on its borders, allowing it to remain the hegemon in the region. The question is: will Russia be able to subsidise them given the Western sanctions on it?

(Uma Purushothaman is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, Central University of Kerala)

THE GIST
The three para states, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria, recognise each other and have their own governments, parliaments. 
South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia, their parent state. Transnistria also broke away from Moldova.
However, all three territories have Russia as their patron state. They cannot survive without Russia’s economic, political, and military support.
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