If NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet can win a fourth term in two weeks' time, he will buck a recent trend.
A Labor wave has been sweeping across the country and so far it's only left NSW and Tasmania untouched.
It won't be easy for Mr Perrottet to hold back the tide.
He's never faced an election as a premier, he's had to work to counter his conservative image, and Labor's been ahead in some polls.
It's a hard contest to forecast, but here are some simple answers to the key questions about the race.
Could the Liberals lose their last mainland state?
After 12 years in power, the NSW Coalition is trying to win another term at a time of widespread Labor dominance across Australia.
Across the country, Labor has retained government and had new successes in recent years.
It holds power in Queensland, Victoria, the ACT, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
NSW is traditionally a Labor state, but in 2011 the party suffered one of the worst political defeats in Australian history.
It is now trying to prove it's ready to govern, campaigning heavily on a need for change.
If former premier Gladys Berejiklian was still at the helm, the Coalition would have a much easier path to success at this election.
Ms Berejiklian's popularity endured even the wildest storms, and her leadership during the pandemic would have been a strong campaigning point.
Securing a fourth term in government hasn't been done by the NSW Coalition for 50 years.
Former premier Robert Askin has been the only Liberal to do it.
To form a majority government, the Coalition has to win 47 seats.
It enters the race with 46, so it cannot afford to lose any and it must also make gains.
Key seats to watch
Some seats are on razor-thin margins, some will be harder to win due to retiring MPs, and some blue-ribbon seats might turn "teal".
As always, Sydney's west and south-west will be critical.
Parramatta is seen as the easiest Labor gain, with electoral boundary changes reducing the Liberal margin from 10.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
Popular Liberal MP Geoff Lee is retiring, which may hurt the party's chances. New candidate Katie Mullens is even describing herself as the "underdog".
Kogarah is an interesting one. It's the most marginal in the state, but is also the seat of Opposition Leader Chris Minns.
He holds it on the minuscule margin of 0.1 per cent, and is up against the Liberals' Craig Chung who will likely resonate with the large Australian Chinese community in the area.
The blue-ribbon seat of Pittwater is facing a threat from a teal independent.
Jacqui Scruby, who has the backing of the Climate 200 group, is hoping to appeal to voters in the area who elected independent Sophie Scamps at last year's federal election.
It doesn't help that popular Liberal MP Rob Stokes, who has held the seat for 16 years, is retiring at this election.
Penrith is one of the Coalition's most marginal seats — held on a wafer-thin margin of 0.6 per cent — so Labor is going in for the steal.
It's traditionally a Labor seat but Liberal MP Stuart Ayres turned it blue in 2010.
Mr Ayres is facing-off against former Penrith mayor Karen McKeown, who lost to him by just over 1,000 votes at the 2019 election.
Labor holds Heathcote on a margin of 1.7 per cent, but only on paper.
New electoral boundaries have made it a nominal Labor seat which spells bad news for Liberal MP Lee Evans who has held the seat for 12 years.
What happens if no party gets a majority?
Neither the Coalition nor Labor are going into this election with a majority in parliament.
And with many more independent and minor party candidates in the mix, it's possible neither Labor nor the Coalition will win the 47 seats needed for a majority.
This would create a hung parliament, which means the Coalition or Labor would need to seek agreements with independent or minor party MPs to govern.
Once these deals were made, either the Coalition or Labor would have what's called a minority government.
Some of the independents already in parliament have been putting forward issues that are important to them and could sway their support if a minority government needs to be formed.
For example, powerful Sydney MP Alex Greenwich says a cashless card for poker machines and a ban on gay conversion practices will be crucial to get his support.
The Coalition has been operating as a minority since 2021 when MPs John Sidoti and Gareth Ward moved to the crossbench, and Andrew Constance resigned with Labor picking up his seat in a by-election.
Do the independents present a threat?
At this election there are five teal candidates — who have received backing from the Climate 200 organisation — trying to pick up votes in Liberal strongholds.
Helen Conway is running for North Shore, Jacqui Scruby for Pittwater, Judy Hannan for Wollondilly, Victoria Davidson in Lane Cove and Joeline Hackman in Manly.
Other independents running who aren't backed by Climate 200 are Karen Freyer in Vaucluse, Larissa Penn in Willoughby and Michael Regan in Wakehurst.
All these candidates will be hoping to capitalise on the momentum generated by the six teal independents who had success at last year's federal election.
But it's harder for independents to have success at a NSW election due to optional preferential voting.
Under full preferential voting, which was used at the federal election, voters must number every square.
Under the NSW system of optional preferential voting, the voter only needs to number one square.
That limits preference flows, which were crucial to the success of independents in the 2022 federal election.
Ballot papers that quite literally run out of numbers during the distribution of preferences "exhaust" further preferences, and are removed from the count.
It means candidates leading on first preferences are advantaged, with second- and third-placed candidates disadvantaged.
Despite this, independents will likely make gains on March 25 and hurt the government's chances of claiming a majority.
What about One Nation?
One Nation also presents a threat to the Liberals.
The party will run in almost twice as many seats as it did in the 2019 election, and it is targeting voters frustrated by the major parties.
It is focusing on some of the more marginal Western Sydney seats, such as Penrith and Parramatta.
One Nation will not swap preferences with any party at this election and is encouraging voters to simply put a number one next to its candidates.
At the last election, state party leader Mark Latham and Rod Roberts secured upper house spots.
