It's the multi-billion-dollar question plaguing the oil and gas industry: Can Australia reach net zero emissions by 2050 while continuing to burn fossil fuels?
A key part of the solution, according to the industry, lies in a technology known as carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, many scientists disagree.
Across Australia, 10 new offshore areas were last week approved for oil and gas exploration, as were permits for two new offshore greenhouse gas storage facilities.
So, does CCS work at mass scale, and is Australia relying on its success to meet climate targets?
What is carbon capture and storage?
CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide at the site of production using engineering techniques, then burying it deep underground where it becomes trapped in a porous rock layer.
Supporters say it will help reduce carbon emissions from oil and gas projects, with major gas company directors hailing its potential at a recent minerals conference in Darwin.
But a growing number of scientists argue there's no proof it will work at a scale large enough to mitigate the effects of climate change.
According to a new report by The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the majority of carbon capture and storage projects around the world don't perform as well as they should.
The institute looked at 13 large-scale carbon capture and storage projects, and found seven underperformed, two failed, and one was "mothballed".
Co-author and financial energy analyst Bruce Robertson said "80 to 90 per cent of all emissions from gas come when you burn it — not when you produce it".
"CCS will do absolutely nothing for those emissions," he said.
Despite this, the Northern Territory government is hedging its bets on the technology, looking to it as a way to open up major gas developments, from the multi-billion-dollar Santos Barossa gas project to the Beetaloo Basin — a region the gas industry is holding up as one solution to Australia's energy crisis — while also meeting its promise to fully offset all the resulting life-cycle carbon emissions.
The risk of overpromising
Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King says carbon capture and storage has a "vital role to play to help Australia meet its net zero targets".
But she has said that the government was not relying on CCS to reduce emissions, calling it "part of the tool kit" of getting to net zero.
Companies are facing increasing scrutiny over potential so-called "greenwashing", with gas giant Santos being taken to court for allegedly overstating its "clean energy" credentials.
Mark Ogge, principal climate and energy adviser at the Australia Institute, said CCS technology was "enormously complicated" and could not be used as "justification for opening up massive new gas fields".
"Theoretically, CCS can capture a very small percentage of total emissions," he said.
"But it's enabling these huge projects that are going to add billions of tonnes of emissions to the atmosphere, so it's a fig leaf for the industry to keep expanding."
'Fancy term for a rubbish dump'
If large-scale production of the Beetaloo Basin goes ahead, government estimates show it could release 5 million to 39 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere every year.
Tony Wood, the Grattan Institute's energy and climate change program director, said: "We're talking about really big amounts of CO2 here — not just a couple of bottles of Coke out of this."
Mr Wood said while it's possible to capture some carbon dioxide at the site of production, the challenge is storing huge amounts of it underground in a safe and affordable way.
"This is basically a fancy term for a rubbish dump," Mr Wood said.
"It's not simple and it's not cheap."
Mr Ogge said it was now "far cheaper to produce electricity with renewable energy … than producing [it] with gas or coal".
On a smaller scale, Mr Wood said CCS technology could benefit some industries in which producing carbon dioxide was unavoidable, such as cement production. But not on a larger scale that would reduce emissions.
"You can't make [cement] out of solar — you have to actually have the physical hard product, which comes from carbon dioxide," he said.
Energy companies have been using CCS technology for more than 50 years, for the main purpose of injecting carbon back into the ground to extract more oil.
Although the technology has improved since the 1970s, the vast majority of large-scale projects continue to be riddled with technical issues.
Governments 'need to be realistic' about the technology
Despite the concerns, the oil and gas industry is investing billions of dollars in new gas and CCS projects, and says it is working to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
The peak body, Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA), argues Australia is in a strong position to take advantage of emerging technologies.
“CCUS [carbon capture, utilisation and storage] and CCS have key roles in lowering the carbon intensity of gas production and in supporting the development of blue hydrogen," APPEA WA Director Claire Wilkinson said earlier this year.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, NT Mining Minister Nicole Manison said CCS was "a really important part of our future going forward".
"If we are to hit net zero emissions and have a cleaner, greener future, you have to have carbon capture and storage," she said.
Hannah Ekin from the Arid Lands Environment Centre claims the NT government's reliance on CCS as a way to expand new gas projects was an attempt at "having their cake and eating it too".
"They want to open up the Beetaloo and create a petrochemicals plant in Middle Arm, while simultaneously being able to transition to a net zero economy by 2050," she said.
"They need to be realistic. You can't do these things at once."
With fresh warnings that Australia's power supplies could run short from 2025, governments will no doubt face more questions about how to rectify the energy crisis, while reducing emissions.
