Will the sprinters again dominate at the Tour de France on Tuesday’s fast finish on the Nogaro motor racing circuit? Probably.
Can anyone beat them with a late attack? Perhaps.
US national champion Quinn Simmons took on the sprinters in a similar situation on the Autódromo de Villicum during the Vuelta a San Juan in January and won the stage with a smash and grab power attack. But of course the sprinters and their teams will be working hard to keep control of stage 4.
The 181.8km stage from Dax to Nogaro includes just one fourth category climb and cuts across the flat roads of the Gers department of the Occitania region, on the plains that look up to the Pyrenees. It will be hot but probably not windy.
The finish is very different to the roundabout-strewn roads and chicane finish in Bayonne. The last 3.1km are on the Paul Armagnac circuit, used more often for motor racing than bike racing.
It will offer what the sprinters will describe as a ‘super fast’ finish. There is little elevation on the circuit and the corners are fast, wide, sweeping and parabolic.
There will be no need to touch brakes in the final kilometres, instead giant chainrings and a perfect high-power lead out will be vital.
The Nogaro motor racing circuit was last used in a race during the 2017 Route du Sud when EF Education-EasyPost’s Tom Scully won from the breakaway, just holding off Elia Viviani and Bryan Coquard as the sprinters almost caught them.
That day perhaps led to the 2023 Tour de France stage in Nogaro.
Jasper Philipsen won the first sprint of the Tour in Bayonne on stage 3 thanks to a superb lead out from Jonas Rickaert and then Mathieu van der Poel, who dragged his teammate up to the chicane finish, dropping home off at the perfect point to dive to the final corner on the front.
The run in on the Paul Armagnac circuit in Nogaro on stage 4 provides a contrast, as the final 750 metres are dead straight and the seven curves on the 3.1km motor racing circuit are all fast and sweeping.
It suits a powerful leadout, with perhaps Soudal-Quickstep having the muscle to lead out Fabio Jakobsen, Jayco-AlUla to set-up Dylan Groenewegen or Alpecin-Deceuninck to do it again for Philipsen.
The likes of Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal), or perhaps Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan), could also have a late burst of speed in their legs in sight of the line just as they did in Bayonne.
Ewan kicked from behind and moved up when the road was clear ahead of him but the NTT Tour de France data indicated that Cavendish was the fastest in the last kilometre, at one point hitting 73.3km/h as he sprinted to move up. Is that enough speed for Cavendish to win his 35th stage and better the record he shares with Eddy Merckx?
Perhaps it is on the wider roads of the Paul Armagnac circuit.
The motor racing track is 12 metres across but the race book says the finish will be nine metres wide. The barriers will perhaps funnel towards the line but there is still plenty of road for Cavendish and other sprinters to come off the wheels and fan across the road before diving at the white line.
Quinn Simmons’ solo attack as inspiration
Of course it is also possible to beat the sprinters, especially on motor racing circuits, where there is no traffic furniture and few corners but plenty of smooth tarmac to make a daring late attack.
Victor Lafay of Cofidis confirmed on stage 2 that the fast finishers can be beaten with the right attack and enough power. Simmons delivered a similar move at the Vuelta a San Juan, check out the video of the stage above to see how he did it. It is a thrilling finale and perfectly executed performance.
Simmons’ Vuelta a San Juan attack was inspired by a similar move in 2021 by Zdeněk Štybar. His coach Steven De Jongh sent him a video of Štybar's winning maneuver the night before the race to fire-up Simmons' courage to attack.
Perhaps someone has also watched the video of Simmons’ victory and found inspiration for stage 4 of the Tour de France.
Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) or Victor Campenaerts (Lotto Dstny) could be inspired. Perhaps two of them could get away together. It would be a spectacular and thrilling end to the stage, even if they were caught and the sprinters took the glory.
Simmons is unlikely to have the freedom to try a move in this year’s Tour de France. He will ride for Mads Pedersen and do the early chasing before Alex Kirsch and Jasper Stuyven take over for Pedersen’s lead out. Someone else, however, could be brave enough to try their hand and take on the sprinters.
“To beat the sprinters you need 900 watts for a minute or maybe more,” Simmons warned.
“In our team I can do it and I’m sure Mads can do it too. Guys like Wout Van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel can probably do even more watts. But it’s one thing to do it in training and another to do it at the end of a Tour de France stage after fighting for position at 60km/h.
“It has to be the right scenario and the right moment but maybe there’s a chance for someone on Tuesday. Not every sprint finish in the Tour automatically has to be for the sprinters. People can rip up the script.”
