LEXINGTON, Ky. — Will this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup Classic serve as the crowning moment for a horse that will go down in the history books, or will it be the setting for a major upset?
We’ll find out Saturday evening at Keeneland, which will host horse racing’s World Championships for the third time and welcome one of the sport’s biggest stars in recent memory.
The undefeated Flightline will be a massive favorite in the Breeders’ Cup main event, coming to town a perfect 5 for 5 for his career and installed as the 3-5 morning-line favorite in a formidable field. His rivals Saturday will include reigning Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champ Life Is Good, top 3-year-old competitor Epicenter, and long-shot Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike, who will likely go off at long odds once again.
Life Is Good — one of racing’s greats over the past year — is expected to try and set the early pace in the Classic, but he’ll have plenty of talented horses chasing him down near the end. Flightline has also been a frontrunner and probably won’t let Life Is Good get too much of an early lead. Epicenter and fellow 3-year-old Taiba should be among those running for the lead in the stretch. That is, unless Flightline has already run away with the race.
Here’s a look at all eight horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field.
1. Taiba (8-1)
— Need to know: The buzz horse of Kentucky Derby season, Taiba didn’t make his debut until March 5, and got transferred from the barn of the banned Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen, who was the trainer of record for Taiba’s impressive Santa Anita Derby victory. He tried to run the Kentucky Derby off those two starts alone and finished 12th, but he’s recovered nicely since, placing second behind Cyberknife in the Grade 1 Haskell and beating Zandon and Cyberknife, among others, last time out in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. The son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner has been back in Baffert’s barn for his last two races and once again will be ridden by Mike Smith, who is looking to tie the record with a fifth Classic victory.
— A good bet? His relatively brief racing career signifies a colt that could be sitting on his best performance yet. Taiba must be included in the exotic wagering, and he’s one of the most logical picks in the field to pull an upset victory.
2. Life Is Good (6-1)
— Need to know: It wasn’t that long ago that Life Is Good was being mentioned in equal standing with Flightline, and for good reason. While the Classic favorite was still a bit of a mystery, Life Is Good had already won the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and 2022 Pegasus World Cup. The son of top sire Into Mischief is coming into this one off three straight victories, but his only go at 1 1/4 miles was a fourth-place finish in this year’s Dubai World Cup, the worst showing of his 11-race career. There are some distance questions here, especially with Flightline (and others) likely to be pressing him in the early stages of the race. Todd Pletcher trains, and Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard Saturday. They teamed up to win the Classic with Vino Rosso three years ago.
— A good bet? He’s undoubtedly a star, but — even if Flightline doesn’t fire on Saturday — whoever wins the Classic will likely need the best race of his career. It just seems like Life Is Good’s best work is behind him, and the 1 1/4-mile distance remains a question mark. The most likely scenario is that Life Is Good tries valiantly to hang with Flightline but tires in the end.
3. Happy Saver (30-1)
— Need to know: Even the longest shot in a race like the Classic has an impressive track record. Happy Saver won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at age 3 in 2020 and finished second in that race last year. He won the first five starts of his career but has gone winless in his last seven, though he’s usually around at the finish, and all of those losses have come in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races. His last four starts have been won by four different rivals in this Classic field: Flightline, Life Is Good, Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie, so he’ll obviously need to take a step forward to compete for a strong finish this weekend. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
— A good bet? There’s not much reason to think Happy Saver will be in the mix at the finish line.
4. Flightline (3-5)
— Need to know: Well, he could go down in history as one of the greatest ever. The results to this point are astounding. Five starts, five victories, and a combined winning margin of 62 3/4 lengths. His last race was a performance for the ages, winning the Pacific Classic by nearly 20 lengths in his first career start beyond 1 mile. The runner-up that day was Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer, and the win earned Flightline a Beyer Speed Figure of 126, the second-highest assigned since the Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers 30 years ago. (The highest was a 128 by Ghostzapper, who won the Classic in 2004). Flightline is trained by John Sadler, ridden by Flavien Prat and the son of three-time champion sire Tapit.
— A good bet? He deserves to be the odds-on favorite, even in this impressive field. You’re not going to win much with a simple win bet (unless you make a huge wager), so playing Flightline on top of the exotics — and hoping a long shot or two hits — is the best chance at a Classic payday. Anything can happen, but this is clearly a special horse. If he comes anywhere close to matching his last performance, everyone else will be running for second.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (15-1)
— Need to know: The runner-up in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 2021 Kentucky Derby is coming into this race off a win in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, where he defeated reigning Derby champ Rich Strike in a stretch duel. The son of Oxbow is always around at the end of races. His worst defeat in the past two years was a fourth-place finish — beaten about 4 lengths — behind Knicks Go in last year’s Classic. Other than that, he hasn’t been beaten more than 2 lengths in his past 15 races. He’s trained by Doug O’Neill and will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione.
— A good bet? Of the four contenders with double-digits odds, Charlie looks like the best shot to figure into the finish. He’s always game, even if he doesn’t always win. Don’t leave him out.
6. Epicenter (5-1)
— Need to know: He was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and was caught just before the wire by long-shot Rich Strike. He was the favorite in the Preakness and finished second there, too, the victim of a bad trip and unfavorable pace scenario. Since then? Epicenter has defeated Derby rival Zandon and Preakness winner Early Voting in the Jim Dandy Stakes, and beaten both of those horses again and Rich Strike in the Grade 1 Travers, staking his claim as the top 3-year-old in the country. In the Travers, he earned a 112 Beyer, second only to Flightline in the Classic field. The son of Not This Time is trained by Steve Asmussen and will be ridden by Joel Rosario, winner of two of the last four Breeders’ Cup Classics.
— A good bet? If you’re trying to beat Flightline, this is your guy. He’s the best 3-year-old in America, and he’s deserving to be the second choice in Saturday’s betting. If he’s still improving, and it certainly seems like that’s the case, he has a chance. No one is going to beat Flightline at his best, but if something goes wrong, Epicenter is the horse to beat.
7. Olympiad (10-1)
— Need to know: Olympiad has won comfortably in six of his seven starts this year, including the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in July, earning a career-best 111 Beyer for that one. The outlier in that 2022 record was a fourth-place finish in the Whitney Handicap behind three rivals he’ll see again Saturday at Keeneland: Life Is Good, Happy Saver and Hot Rod Charlie. Olympiad is the only horse in this field with a victory at Keeneland, winning a 7-furlong allowance race here last fall. The son of Speightstown is trained by William Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado.
— A good bet? Olympiad has won big races, but he hasn’t beaten the caliber of competitor he’ll see Saturday. You have to throw out some quality horses in the Classic, and others just seem like better bets.
8. Rich Strike (20-1)
— Need to know: The shock Kentucky Derby winner at 80-1 odds, Rich Strike has proven in the six months since that upset that he’s not a fluke horse, even if he might be a cut below most of the others in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field. He was credited with a 105 Beyer — finishing fourth behind Epicenter, Cyberknife and Zandon — in the Travers Stakes, then nearly knocked off Hot Rod Charlie in the stretch of the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. Rich Strike still has just two wins in 11 career starts — the Derby and a maiden-claiming romp at Churchill last fall. He is the son of Keen Ice, who upset American Pharoah between the Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup seven years ago. Eric Reed trains, and Sonny Leon will be aboard again Saturday.
— A good bet? Surely he won’t find his way into the winner’s circle here, but it’s not ridiculous to think he could pick up the pieces behind a hot pace up front and find a way to hit the board. If you’re playing Flightline on top, it wouldn’t hurt to include the Derby winner at the bottom of the exotic wagers.
Saturday
39th annual Breeders’ Cup
— What: Second of two days of world championship racing
— Where: Keeneland Race Course in Lexington
— TV: USA, FanDuel TV, NBC
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup schedule at Keeneland
11:50 a.m.:Filly and Mare Sprint (USA, FanDuel TV)
12:29 p.m.: Turf Sprint (USA, FanDuel TV)
1:10 p.m.: Dirt Mile (USA, FanDuel TV)
1:50 p.m.: Filly and Mare Turf (USA, FanDuel TV)
2:30 p.m.: Sprint (USA, FanDuel TV)
3:10 p.m.: Mile (USA, FanDuel TV)
3:55 p.m.: Distaff (NBC-18, Peacock, FanDuel TV)
4:40 p.m.: Turf (NBC-18, Peacock, FanDuel TV)
5:40 p.m.: Classic (NBC-18, Peacock)
— Note: Saturday’s card includes two non-Breeders’ Cup races before and one after the nine Breeders’ Cup events. First post Saturday is 10:30 a.m.
